May 1, 2005  

In-season Report Card: The First Quarter

Believe it or not, we're already a quarter of the way through the 2005 season! Let's break out the slide rules and do some sabermetric number crunching on the league standings and take a look at the league's under- and over-achievers over the first 40 or so games.

Inside the Numbers

First let's take a look at the standings as of Saturday, April 30.

Overall, the Newark Sugar Bears are in 1st place, 2½ games ahead of the Arkansas Golden Falcons. The Carolina Mudcats are in 3rd place, a half-game ahead of the Philadelphia Endzone Animals. The Columbia Rattlesnakes and Honolulu Sharks are tied for 5th place, a half-game ahead of the 7th-place Hoboken Cutters. There's another tie at 8th place, between the Stanhope Mighty Men and Vancouver Iron Fist. The Las Vegas Rat Pack occupies 10th place, followed by the 11th-place Phoenix Dragons. Rounding out the back of the pack are the Hillsborough Destroyers, Tijuana Banditos and, in last place, the Westwood Deductions.

Here's some other first-quarter numbers to ponder:

Best offense: Newark (341 runs for), Arkansas (250), Carolina (236).
Worst offense: Westwood (149 runs for), Hoboken (170), Tijuana (188).

Best defense: Philly (165 runs against), Arkansas (169), Columbia (174).
Worst defense: Hillsborough (286 runs against), Tijuana (257), Phoenix (249).

Best run margin: Newark (+137), Arkansas (+81), Columbia (+33).
Worst run margin: Westwood (-80), Tijuana (-69), Hillsborough (-57).

Best home team: Philly (.750 W%), Newark (.720), Arkansas (.632).
Worst home team: Vancouver (.313 W%), Westwood (.364), Las Vegas (.458).

Best road team: Arkansas (.619 W%), Newark (.611), Vancouver (.583).
Worst road team: Tijuana (.200 W%), Westwood (.313), Hillsborough (.316).

Most home games played: Stanhope (60.0%), Newark (58.1%), Westwood (57.9%).
Fewest home games played: Philly (38.1%), Vancouver (40.0%), Tijuana (40.5%).

Best division record: Arkansas and Newark (.750 W%), Columbia (.583).
Worst division record: Westwood (.250 W%), Hillsborough (.333), Vancouver (.400).

Best interdivision record: Newark (.630 W%), Carolina (.607), Philly (.552).
Worst interdivision record: Tijuana (.320 W%), Westwood (.385), Phoenix (.429).

Best vs LHP: Columbia and Stanhope (.667 W%), Philly (.643).
Worst vs LHP: Vancouver (.250 W%), Phoenix and Tijuana (.357).

Best vs RHP: Newark (.759 W%), Arkansas (.633), Vancouver (.571).
Worst vs RHP: Westwood (.320 W%), Tijuana (.357), Stanhope (.393).

Pythagorean Baseball

The Pythagorean Theorem isn't just for triangles. Initially developed by Bill James, it can be used to determine what a team's record "should" be, based on how many runs they score and how many runs they allow. Over the course of a few thousand games, a team's won-loss record will almost always correspond to its Pythagorean Winning Percentage, which is determined by the square of a team's runs for divided by the square of a team's runs against plus the square of runs for: RF^2/(RA^2+RF^2).

However, the smaller sample size of just 40 or so games played means most teams will perform a couple games better or worse than their Pythagorean Winning Percentage. Old-school baseball watchers say the difference between the expected and actual winning percentages can be explained by intangibles like team chemistry, clutch hitting or plain ol' hustle. But the sabermetricians chalk the difference up to luck -- which usually evens out over the course of a long season. In theory, a team that is one or two wins ahead of its Pythagorean Performance over the first quarter can expect to give those games back sometime before the end of the year; the same goes for teams that are "owed" wins.

Pythagorean Performance				Expected			Actual
1st Q '05	RF	RA	Diff	PCT	W	L	PCT	W	L	+/-
Newark	341	204	+137	0.736	32	11	0.674	29	14	-3
Arkansas	250	169	+81	0.686	27	13	0.625	25	15	-2
Columbia	207	174	+33	0.586	24	17	0.537	22	19	-2
Philly	197	165	+32	0.588	25	17	0.548	23	19	-2
Carolina	236	204	+32	0.572	23	18	0.561	23	18	0
Vancouver	218	204	+14	0.533	21	19	0.475	19	21	-2
Stanhope	210	205	+ 5	0.512	20	20	0.475	19	21	-1
Las Vegas	189	204	-15	0.462	20	23	0.465	20	23	0
Honolulu	213	235	-22	0.451	19	24	0.535	23	20	+4
Phoenix	209	249	-40	0.413	17	23	0.450	18	22	+1
Hoboken	170	221	-51	0.372	16	26	0.524	22	20	+6
Hillsboro	229	286	-57	0.391	16	25	0.415	17	24	+1
Tijuana	188	257	-69	0.349	15	27	0.357	15	27	0
Westwood	149	229	-80	0.297	11	27	0.342	13	25	+2

Well, this is a surprise. The numbers say that the league's top five teams are better than their actual won-loss records, and the league's bottom five teams are even worse than it would first appear. Believe it or not, Pythagoras says the unluckiest team over the first quarter were the Newark Sugar Bears. The Brick City Bombers have the best record in baseball at 29-14, with a 2½-game lead over their nearest pursuer, but their league-high +137 run-differential says they should really be three games better than that. Three of the four teams right behind the Sugar Bears -- the Arkansas Golden Falcons, the Philadelphia Endzone Animals and the Columbia Rattlesnakes -- are tied for next unluckiest, all two games worse than their records would appear. The other unlucky team two games behind their actual record, the Vancouver Iron Fist, are tied for 8th place in reality, but Pythagoras says their 6th-best +14 differential should be good for a 6th-place record. The other underachiever over the first quarter were the Stanhope Mighty Men, who are a game worse than Pythagoras thinks.

When it comes to overachieving, the leader of the pack are the Hoboken Cutters. The Cutters have the league's 7th-best record, but rank 11th with a -51 run-differential. (Remember, however, that in one three-game series against Newark, the Cutters were outscored 47-18, which accounts for a big chunk of that -51!) Their Pythagorean Winning Percentage is a woeful .372, six games worse than their actual record. Interestingly enough, the next-biggest overachiever are the Honolulu Sharks -- the team a half-game ahead of Hoboken in the standings. The Sharks have a 9th-place -22 run-differential, which Pythagoras says should give them a record somewhere around five games below .500 -- not three games above it, as they in reality are. Adding insult to injury, the other overachievers are all at the back of the pack -- the 14th-place Westwood Deductions (+2), the 12th-place Hillsborough Destroyers (+1) and the 11th-place Phoenix Dragons (+1). 

Three teams are exactly where the numbers predicted: The 3rd-place Carolina Mudcats, the 10th-place Las Vegas Rat Pack and the 13th-place Tijuana Banditos.

One Is the Loneliest Number

Don't like looking to the ancient Greeks for baseball analysis? No problem! Another way to look at a team's performance is how they do in one-run games. In addition to his pioneering work in applying the Pythagorean Theorem to predicting a team's winning percentage, Bill James also has another theory that a team's winning percentage in one-run games should roughly correspond to its Pythagorean Winning Percentage -- a team that has a Pythagorean winning percentage of .600 should win about 60 percent of its one-run games. But, of course, it doesn't always work that way. The difference between a team's expected and actual one-run records could be explained by managerial tactics, clutch hitting, tough pitching, a deeper bench or bullpen, a blown call by an umpire... or just dumb luck.

We looked at how many one-run games each team had been in over the first quarter, then multiplied those games by the team's Pythagorean Winning Percentage to come up with the team's expected performance in one-run games. Then we compared it to their actual performance in those contests. Because a team can't get half a win, we rounded the results to the closest whole number.

1-Run Games	Expected			Actual
2005	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	+/-
Newark	8	3	0.736	6	5	0.545	-2
Arkansas	6	3	0.686	5	4	0.556	-1
Philadelphia	5	3	0.588	4	4	0.500	-1
Columbia	6	4	0.586	3	7	0.300	-3
Carolina	8	6	0.572	5	9	0.357	-3
Vancouver	4	3	0.533	2	5	0.286	-2
Stanhope	5	4	0.512	5	4	0.556	0
Las Vegas	6	6	0.462	7	5	0.583	+1
Honolulu	7	9	0.451	9	7	0.563	+2
Phoenix	3	5	0.413	5	3	0.625	+2
Hillsborough	5	8	0.391	7	6	0.538	+2
Hoboken	4	6	0.372	7	3	0.700	+3
Tijuana	4	8	0.349	4	8	0.333	0
Westwood	3	6	0.297	5	4	0.556	+2

The Hoboken Cutters are the league's luckiest team when it comes to one-run games. Their run-differential expects a winning percentage of around .372 when it comes to one-run games; instead, they've won seven out of 10 (.700 W%). That swing of three games single-handedly puts them above .500! Four teams -- the Honolulu Sharks, Phoenix Dragons, Hillsborough Destroyers and the Westwood Deductions are all two wins better in one-run games than expected, and the Las Vegas Rat Pack has one more win than would be expected.

The unluckiest teams are the Columbia Rattlesnakes and Carolina Mudcats, who are each three wins worse than they should be in one-run games. Right behind them in the whining are the Newark Sugar Bears and the Vancouver Iron Fist, two games worse... rounding out the underachievers are Arkansas Golden Falcons and the Philadelphia Endzone Animals.

Two teams are performing more or less as expected in one-run games: The Stanhope Mighty Men and the Tijuana Banditos.

The Sharks have been lucky in one-run games, and that's probably a good thing, since they've played more of them (16) than any other team. On average, about one in four games is decided by one run, but the Sharks have won or lost by that margin in a whopping 37% of their first-quarter games. Other teams that like to keep it close are the Mudcats (34%), Destroyers (31%) and Banditos (28%)... The Iron Fist have been getting robbed in one-run games, and once again, it's probably a good thing that they've played in fewer (7) than any other team. Just 17% of their games have been one-run affairs. The only other teams close to them in this category are the Endzone Animals (19%) and Dragons (20%).

Interestingly enough, this table reflects the same pattern as the one found in the Pythagorean Winning Percentage table; the league's best teams might be a little bit better than it would at first appear, and the league's worst teams might be a little bit worse. Not one of the top seven teams in run-differential is performing better than expected in one-run games; not one of the worst seven teams in run-differential is performing worse than expected.

Who's Lucky and Who's Good?

Looking at Pythagorean Winning Percentage and One-Run Winning Percentage from the first-quarter, we can make some predictions about how the rest of the season will go, assuming luck evens out over the course of 162 games.

The luckiest team over the first quarter, by far, were the Hoboken Cutters. Frank Sinatra's favorite team was a whopping nine games better than the numbers say they oughta be. Instead of their 7th-best 22-20 record, the Cutters should really be more like second-to-last. Other lucky teams were the Honolulu Sharks (+6), the Westwood Deductions (+4), the Hillsborough Destroyers (+3) and the Phoenix Dragons (+3).

The unluckiest team over the first quarter: The Newark Sugar Bears and the Columbia Rattlesnakes, who were five games worse than would be expected based on the numbers. Other underachievers: The Vancouver Iron Fist (-4), the Arkansas Golden Falcons (-3), the Carolina Mudcats (-3), the Philadelphia Endzone Animals (-3).

The Stanhope Mighty Men (-1) and the Las Vegas Rat Pack (+1) were more or less where the numbers said they should be, and the Tijuana Banditos were spot-on -- a perfect "0" when it comes to both Pythagorean Winning Percentage and one-run games!

So what does it all mean?

If we could strip out the luck from the league standings, here's what they'd look like at the quarter-post:

Overall,  the Newark Sugar Bears would still be in first, followed by the Arkansas Golden Falcons, but with each with better records. The Columbia Rattlesnakes, now tied for 5th, would move up to 3rd overall. The Carolina Mudcats, really in 3rd, and Philadelphia Endzone Animals, really in 4th, would each move down one spot in the standings. The Vancouver Iron Fist would jump out of their 8th-place tie and move up to 6th place, and the team they're really tied with, the Stanhope Mighty Men, would be in 7th. The Las Vegas Rat Pack (10th) and Honolulu Sharks (tied for 5th) would find themselves in an 8th-place tie. The Phoenix Dragons would move up one spot to 10th place, and the Tijuana Banditos would bounce up from 13th place to 11th. The Hillsborough Destroyers would stay right where they are in 12th place. The Hoboken Cutters would have the biggest drop of any team, from 7th place all the way to 13th. Bringing up the rear -- only even farther back -- would be the Westwood Deductions.

Maybe Pythagoras is right in foretelling better things ahead for Vancouver and Las Vegas, and rough futures for Hoboken and Honolulu. Then again, Pythagoras died 2,300 years before baseball was invented, so why should we expect him to know what he's talking about? The only way to find out is to check back in at the half-way point of the season for some more number crunching!

Cecil Fielder was the first selection in the DMBL's inaugural draft in 1991. Since then he's enjoyed a solid career as a member of seven DMBL teams. He is now retired and serves as the color man for the Columbia Rattlesnakes radio team. Click Here for past articles.