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April 30, 2006 |
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In-season Report Card: The
First Quarter Believe it or not, we're already a quarter of the way through the 2006 season! Let's break out the slide rules and do some sabermetric number crunching on the league standings and take a look at the league's under- and over-achievers over the first 40 or so games. Standing on Principle First let's take a look at the
standings as of Saturday, April 30.
In the overall standings, the Newark
Sugar
Bears have the league's best record at the end of the first
quarter, leading the Las Vegas
Rat Pack by a half-game. That may seem odd, as the Rat Pack's
winning percentage is actually .001 higher. But the Sugar Bears are 15
games over .500, while the Rats are just 14. It'll all get sorted out
once the two teams play an equal number of games... The Hoboken Cutters, 5 games
behind Newark, have the league's 3rd-best record, a game ahead of the Vancouver Ironfist and Carolina
Mudcats, who are tied for the league's 4th-best record and the
Morris Division lead... There's a three-way tie for 6th-place between
the Philadelphia Endzone Animals, Arkansas Golden Falcons and Hillsborough
Hired Hitmen... The Phoenix Dragons are in
9th place, but they're just a half-game out of 6th, 2 games out of 4th.
And just a half-game behind them are the Honolulu
Dragons, in 10th place... Just a week ago the Marietta
Mighty Men were tied for the league's 4th-best record; now they've
got the league's 4th-worst record, courtesy of a six-game losing
streak to end the first quarter... The battle for the bottom looks
ugly, with three teams under
.400: The D.C. Bushslappers, Westwood Deductions and, in last place, the South Boston Gang. Home Cookin': The Endzone Animals have the league's best home-field advantage relative to their overall record: They're 14-8 (.636 W%) at home, compared to just 22-22 overall. Their +.136 W% at home is the best in baseball, followed by Hillsborough (+.111 W%) and D.C. (+.105), then Las Vegas (+.080), Newark (+.079), Phoenix (+.072), Honolulu (+.068) and South Boston (+.048). The worst home team is Carolina (-.092), followed by Marietta (-.088), Vancouver (-.063) and Arkansas (-.056). Westwood (+.018) and Hoboken (-.011) more or less break even. Division and Conquer: The toughest team against divisional opponents are the Mudcats, who are 13-6 against Morris Division foes -- a .684 W% in their division, compared to just .537 overall, for a league-high +.148 W% difference. D.C. (+.139), South Boston (+.056), Newark (+.039), Las Vegas (+.038) and Phoenix (+.012) also post better records inside their division than their overall record... As for opponents from outside the division, I guess it's true what they say about Sharks not eating their own kind: Honolulu is 13-10 (.565 W%) against the Morris Division, compared to an 8-13 record (.381 W%) against their fellow Hanover teams, and a +.088 W% gain over their overall record. Other teams that fare better in inter-division play are Hoboken (+.054), Westwood (+.052), Vancouver (+.047), Philly (+.042), Hillsborough (.022) and Marietta (+.015). The Golden Falcons are the only team with an identical record inside and outside their division -- they're .500 against everybody. That's Offensive!
The Newark
Sugar Bears, as usual, have the league's best offense, ranking 1st
in runs per game, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging
percentage, OPS, runs scored, runs created and runs created per 27
outs. And at 6.7 runs per game, they're on a pace to score 1,000+ runs
for a third straight year. The only thing they don't do well is run --
their .522 SB% is second-worst in the league, even though they rank 6th
in stolen base attempts (23). With a stolen base percentage that low,
and the rest of the offense generating so many runs, they're only
helping the opposition by running as much as they do... The only other
team on a 1,000-run pace over the first quarter are the Vancouver Ironfist, who rank behind only Newark
in R/G, OBP, SLG, OPS, runs, RC and RC/27 -- and lead the league in
doubles, home runs, walks and stolen base percentage, a perfect
10-for-10... The Hillsborough Hired Hitmen and
Las Vegas Rat Pack tie for third at
5.7 runs per game. The Hitmen, despite a mediocre 7th in batting
average, have a balanced offense, ranking 4th in OBP, SLG, OPS and SB%.
The Rat Pack rank 4th in batting average and 3rd in OBP, SLG and OPS,
and are first -- by a huge margin -- in stolen bases, at 46. (The
Hitmen are second with 23.) But the Rats also lead the league -- also
by a large margin -- in caught stealing, with 21, giving them a
less-than-stellar .687 SB%... The Marietta Mighty
Men scored just 3.8 runs per game over the first quarter, and also
are last in batting average and slugging percentage. Despite the lack
of power, they need just two more strikeouts to lead the league in that
category. But they aren't giving away outs on the basepaths, ranking
only behind perfect Vancouver in stolen base percentage (.917)... Even
though they out-scored Marietta and the D.C.
Bushslappers by a handful of runs over the first quarter, the
numbers say the worst lineup in baseball belongs to the Westwood Deductions. The Ducks are second-worst
in batting average (by a single percentage point) and slugging
percentage, and dead last in OBP, OPS and RC/27. Getting Defensive
The Las Vegas Rat Pack
are the league's stingiest team when it comes to giving up runs (3.82
per game), earned runs (3.32) and baserunners per 9 innings pitched
(11.1). They get good performances from both ends of the staff, ranking
1st in quality start percentage, while the bullpen is 3rd in fewest
inherited runners who scored and tied for 3rd in save percentage. The
pitching staff deserves most of the credit, though: Their .985 fielding
percentage is 7th, their .667 stolen base percentage allowed is 8th,
and only four teams have turned fewer double plays. and 67 percent of
opposing base stealers have made it successfully... The Marietta Mighty Men are 2nd in runs allowed per
game, even though they rank second-to-last in quality start percentage
(.390).
They owe it all to one of the league's best bullpens (.684 SV%, .283
IR%) and defenses (.988 fielding percentage, .500 SB% allowed)... The Vancouver Ironfist deserve better than
second-to-last -- they're 5th in SV%, tied for 5th in R/9, tied for 7th
in QS% and are 8th in fielding percentage. What's the problem? They're
14th in HR/9 (1.7) and 13th in inherited runners who scored (.389)...
The Hillsborough Hired Hitmen really earned
their league-high 5.9 runs per game: They're last in ERA (5.42) and
also tied for last in fielding percentage (.978). They've also caught
just 2 out of 25 base stealers for a league-worst .920 SB% allowed. This Left Feels Right
The Vancouver Ironfist
dominated lefties over the first quarter, winning a league-best 12 out
of 15 (.800 W%) against them. The Westwood
Deductions were 2nd at 10 out of 13 (.769), while the Marietta Mighty Men tied for the 3rd-best record
at 6-2 (.750). The Fister batters are slightly better against
left-handed pitching (-.002 BA, +.046 OPS), the Mites a little more so
(+.011 BA, +.087 OPS vs LHP). But the Ducks hitters are even more
extreme (+.062 BA, +.183 OPS), and their .769 W% vs. LHP is a
league-high 412 points better than their overall record of .357.
Stanhope is next at +.287 W% vs L, followed by Vancouver at +.263. The Philadelphia Endzone Animals (6-4, +.100 W%), Las Vegas Rat Pack (6-2, +.066 W%), D.C. Bushslappers (7-9, +.043 W%) and Newark Sugar Bears (7-3, +.017 W%) also are
better against lefties than righties... The best team to start a lefty
against would be the Arkansas Golden Falcons,
who won just 3 out of 10 games against them over the first quarter, but
16-12 (.571) against righties. Their .300 W% against lefties is 200
points worse than their overall record of .500. The Carolina
Mudcats (4-5, -.092 W%), Honolulu Sharks
(7-9, -.040 W%), Phoenix Dragons (7-8, -.022
W%) and Hoboken Cutters (6-5, -.016 W%) also
fared worse against lefties than against righties... Curiously, the Hillsborough Hired Hitmen went .500 whether
facing a lefty or a righty, even though their hitters were fare
remarkably better against righties (.292 BA, .883 OPS) than lefties
(.209, .620)... The only other team with the same record vs L or R is
the South Boston Gang, who posts an equally
inept .333 W% against either. Who Got Lucky?
According to the No Luck Standings, the Newark Sugar Bears wouldn't have the best record
in baseball -- they'd be looking up at the Las
Vegas Rat Pack from 2½ games out, locked in a tie with the Vancouver Ironfist. The numbers suggest the Sugar
Bears have overachieved by 3 wins -- their runs scored/allowed margin
of +59 would peg them at 25 wins, instead of 28. The Ironfist, on the
other hand, have underachieved by 3 wins -- their run margin of +35
would support 23 wins, and they were unlucky by 2 wins in one-run
games. Meanwhile, the Rat Pack is exactly where the numbers would
suggest at 26 wins. The only other team that "broke even" over the
first quarter were the Westwood Deductions, who have apparently earned
their second-worst record... The Arkansas Golden
Falcons would be in 4th place if they weren't 4 wins worse than
expected, and the Phoenix Dragons would be
right behind them in 5th place if they the 3 wins the numbers say
they're owed... The Hoboken Cutters would
still be in the playoff hunt, but they'd have 2 less wins, dropping
them to just a game over .500... The Hillsborough
Hired Hitmen, in reality part of a three-way tie for 6th place,
would fall to 7th if Pythagoras took away the extra win he says they're
owed. Sharing the 7th spot would be the unluckiest team in baseball,
the South Boston Gang. The Gang had the worst
first-quarter of any team, going 14-28; the numbers say they're bad,
but not that bad. Their -42 run differentia is more fitting for a 17-25
team; their unbelievably bad 2-11 record in one-run games should be
more like 5-8. With those extra 6 wins, they'd jump all the way up to
20-22, tied with Hillsborough for the 7th-best record and just
1½
games behind Hoboken for 6th... The Carolina
Mudcats, without Lady Luck, would see their record reversed from
22-19 to 19-22, sinking them from a tie for 4th all the way to 9th...
Another big loser would be the Philadelphia
Endzone Animals, who would sink from a .500 record and a tie for
6th all the way to four games under and a tie for 10th without their 2
lucky wins... Sandwiched around the Ducks in 13th place are the two
luckiest teams in baseball over the first quarter, the Marietta Mighty Men and D.C.
Bushslappers. Each was 4 wins better than the numbers would suggest
-- but it wouldn't make much of a difference in the standings. Marietta
would fall from 11th to 12th, while D.C. would drop from 12th to 14th. Cecil Fielder, the first selection in the DMBL's inaugural draft in 1991, enjoyed a solid career as a member of seven DMBL teams before retiring in 1998 with 102 HR and 322 RBIs. Click Here for past articles. |
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