May 4, 2008  

In-season Report Card: The First Quarter

Did you know that 14 teams, each playing 162 games, equals 2,268 games in a season? And did you also know that we've already played 590 of those games, or 26 percent? You don't have to be a math major to know that means we've past the first quarter mark in the 2008 season. It's been a wild ride with three teams winning like crazy, three teams losing like crazy and everybody else slugging it out in the middle. But before we start looking forward to the second quarter let's take a look at what happened over each team's first 40 or so games this year.

Who's In First?

First let's take a look at the standings after the doubleheader of Sunday, May 4.

In the overall standings, the Las Vegas Rat Pack have the league's best record, leading the Philadelphia Endzone Animals by 1½ games. The Rats had a bigger lead until the final weekend of the first quarter, when they lost five straight games (and Philly won four out of five)... The Newark Sugar Bears have the league's third-best record after going 27-15, leaving them 2 games behind Philly and 3½ behind the Rats... Three Morris Division teams are battling it out for 4th place. The Hillsborough Hired HItmen and Vancouver Iron Fist are in a flat-footed tie, both 25-19. Each team is 3 games behind Newark and 5 behind Philly. And each enters the second quarter on a roll -- the Hitmen have won five out of their last six, while the Iron Fist have won four in a row and six out of their last seven... Just a game behind those two, in 6th place, sit the D.C. Bushslappers, who also have been hot recently, winning seven out of their last nine... The only other winning team comes from the Hanover Division, where the Tampa Bay Plunkers are off to a strong start for a new franchise, going 20-19. They were part of the 4th through 6th logjam before dropping four straight to end the first quarter; now they're 2½ games behind D.C. for the final playoff berth.

Four teams are in the battle to get back to .500. The 8th place Carolina Mudcats started the season slowly but have been building steadily toward the break-even point; after winning six out of their last nine, they're now just 2 games under, and 3 games behind D.C. for 6th place... Taking a different route to .500 are the Arkansas Golden Falcons, who have been one of this year's streakiest teams -- they've lost seven games in a row but also won six in a row, and have lost three in a row three times but are currently riding a three-game winning streak. All those ups and downs have left them in 9th place -- 5 games under .500 and 4½ games out of the wildcard... The Hoboken Cutters looked like a contender for most of the first month of the season but have gone into the tank over the last two weeks. After a 13-10 start, the Cutters have lost 12 out of their last 15 games, leaving them in 10th place -- 6 games under .500 and 5 games out of the post-season... The Blue Ridge Bombers may be at the bottom of the Morris Division standings, but in reality they're just a half-game behind Hoboken, and 5½ games behind D.C. for 6th place.

Then we have the three teams battling it out at the bottom for the chance to have the most balls in the draft lottery. Tied for second-to-last are the Sardine City Straphangers and New Jersey Team Buddah. Each is 14 games under .500 and 9 games out of the post-season. A game behind them are the Marietta Mighty Men. It was just six months ago that the Mites were going toe-to-toe with the Sugar Bears in the World Series; now they're in dead last, 16 games under .500 and 10 games behind D.C. for the final wildcard berth. 

My Place or Yours? Last year there was a lot of talk about how the Newark Sugar Bears benefited from their home stadium, but the reality was they not only had the league's best home record, but also the league's best road record. But this year the difference between home and away is astounding. The Sugar Bears are by far the league's best home team (20-1, .952 W%) and maybe even more remarkable, the league's worst road team (7-14, .333 W%). That's right, Newark -- with the league's third-best record overall -- is worse on the road than the last-place Marietta Mighty Men (.381 W%)! The Las Vegas Rat Pack are the second-best home team (.750 W%), followed by the Hillsborough Hired Hitmen (.650), Philadelphia Endzone Animals (.636), D.C. Bushslappers (.591), Tampa Bay Plunkers (.556), Vancouver Iron Fist (.550) and Carolina Mudcats (.550). The worst home teams are the Mighty Men (.261), followed by New Jersey Team Buddah (.300), the Sardine City Straphangers (.316), the Arkansas Golden Falcons (.400), the Hoboken Cutters (.450) and the Blue Ridge Bombers (.462).

When it comes to the league's best road warriors, it's the Philadelphia Endzone Animals, who went an impressive 15-5 (.750 W%) away from the Eagle's Nest. The Las Vegas Rat Pack followed them with a second-best .684 W%, followed by the Vancouver Iron Fist (.583), Hillsborough Hired Hitmen (.500) and D.C. Bushslappers (.500). Everyone else had a losing record on the road. The worst team of course were the Newark Sugar Bears, followed by the Blue Ridge Bombers (.353), Sardine City Straphangers (.360), New Jersey Team Buddah (.364), Marietta Mighty Men (.381), Hoboken Cutters (.389), Carolina Mudcats (.409), Arkansas Golden Falcons (.474) and Tampa Bay Plunkers (.476).

Lefty Killers: The Las Vegas Rat Pack have faced 10 lefty starters this year and beaten 8 of them, giving them an .800 winning percentage against lefties; the Tampa Bay Plunkers also have an .800 W% vsL, but it's only against five guys. The Carolina Mudcats (6-2), Philadelphia Endzone Animals (7-3), Vancouver Iron Fist (9-5) and New Jersey Team Buddah (8-5) also have a thing for southpaws. When it comes to righties, the Rats also lead the pack, going 23-10 (.697), followed by a tie between Philly and the Newark Sugar Bears (22-10), then the Hillsborough Hired Hitmen (.625) and Vancouver Iron Fist (16-14).

Who Got Lucky?

2008 1st Quarter	Actual Performance						Pythagorean			1-Run			Adjusted
	W	L	#	RF	RA	Mgn	W	L	Luck	W	L	Luck	W	L	Luck	#
Newark	27	15	3rd	332	224	+108	29	13	- 2	5	5	- 2	31	11	- 4	1st
Philadelphia	29	13	2nd	267	185	+ 82	28	14	+ 1	5	2	0	28	14	+1	2nd
Vancouver	25	19	4 T	263	206	+ 57	27	17	- 2	5	4	- 1	28	16	- 3	3rd
Las Vegas	31	12	1st	269	195	+ 74	28	15	+ 3	9	1	+ 2	28	15	+ 5	4th
D.C.	24	20	6th	262	244	+ 18	24	20	0	5	7	- 1	25	19	- 1	5th
Arkansas	17	22	9th	242	238	+  4	20	19	- 3	4	8	- 2	22	17	- 5	6th
Carolina	20	22	8th	190	187	+ 3	21	21	- 1	7	9	- 1	22	20	- 2	7th
Hoboken	16	25	10th	194	200	-  6	18	20	- 2	4	6	- 1	19	19	- 3	8th
Hillsborough	25	19	4 T	222	220	+ 2	22	22	+ 3	7	4	+ 1	21	23	+ 4	9th
Tampa Bay	20	19	7th	186	207	- 21	17	22	+ 3	5	4	+ 1	16	23	+ 4	10T
Blue Ridge	18	25	11th	189	225	- 36	18	25	0	4	7	0	18	25	0	10T
Marietta	14	30	14th	177	290	-113	12	32	+ 2	1	4	0	12	32	+ 2	12th
Sardine City	15	29	12T	171	263	- 92	13	31	+ 2	5	4	+ 2	11	33	+ 4	13th
New Jersey	14	28	12T	129	209	- 80	12	30	+ 2	6	7	+ 3	9	33	+ 5	14th

We can hear the shouts from the reading public -- "FIX!" If Pythagoras determined the standings, the four-time defending champion Newark Sugar Bears would jump from third into first -- and with a 2-game lead. The numbers say the Sugar Bears are the second-most unlucky team in the league, winning four fewer games than expected. Half of the games come from underachieving on their league-best +108 run differential, the other half from their mediocre 5-5 record in one-run games... The Philadelphia Endzone Animals would still be in 2nd place overall. They've been a little lucky, picking up an extra game from the Pythagorean Standings, but they've basically been performing as expected... The Vancouver Iron Fist deserve a nice bump in the standings. They've tied for the fourth-best record so far, but if it for bad luck they'd be in 3rd -- and just a game behind Philly for the Morris Division lead. The Iron Fist would pick up two wins from Pythagoras and another from one-run games... It's nice to be lucky and good! The Las Vegas Rat Pack had the league's best record over the first quarter, but how much of that is owed to Lady Luck? Maybe as befitting the team that plays its home games in a gambler's paradise, the Rats tied for the most luck so far this year, winning 5 more games than expected. The Rats have been three wins better than their third-best +74 run differential, and even more remarkably, have won an unsustainable 90 percent of their 10 one-run games. Overall, the No Luck Standings have them 5 games worse than they actually are, which would leave them in 4th place, 3½ games behind Newark in the Hanover... The D.C. Bushslappers were a little unlucky in the first quarter; they're right on target with their 24-20 record and +18 run differential, but they should be more like a .500 team in one-run games. Turn one of those losses into a win and they move up one rung in the standings, from 6th to 5th.

The Arkansas Golden Falcons are convinced they're better than a 9th-place team... and so is Pythagoras! My slide rule says they're the league's unluckiest team, 5 wins worse than expected. The Falcs are 17-22 despite a respectable +4 run differential (6th-best in the league). Much of the problem is their awful performance in one-run games -- they've gone just 4-8 in those contests. Their Pythagorean Winning Percentage would give them three more wins and they'd pick up two more in one-run games, giving them five more wins and sending them all the way from 9th place to 6th, just a half-game behind D.C. ... The Carolina Mudcats are 2 games under .500; the geeks say that oughta be reversed. The Mudcats should be a win better based on their +3 run differential, and they should pick up another win from their unlucky 7-9 record in one-run games; credit them with both and they'd be 22-20, and in 7th instead of 8th... The Hoboken Cutters hung with the contenders for much of the first quarter before a late collapse; that was clearly bad luck, according to the numbers. The Cutters are 16-25 despite a -6 run differential, which would typically result in an 18-20 record; they've also gone just 4-6 in one-run games, when a .500 record would be expected. Give them those 3 wins back and they're at .500, and move up from 10th to 8th.

Pythagoras isn't impressed with the next two teams, although both are in the thick of the playoff battle. The Hillsborough Hired Hitmen are, in reality, tied for 4th place and 6 games over .500 -- but that's three wins better than their +2 run differential would expect. They've also gone 7-4 in one-run games, which is a win better than expected. Take away those four wins and they drop all the way to 9th place, two games under .500... Right behind them would be the Tampa Bay Plunkers. The upstart team is making a playoff run in its first year of existence -- are they for real? The numbers say no. The Splashers had the league's 7th-best record at 20-19 over the first quarter despite a woeful -21 run differential, which ranked 10th in the league. They also went 5-4 in one-run games, but the numbers would expect 4-5 instead. It adds up to 4 extra wins; take them away and they'd be 16-23, 2½ games behind Hillsborough... That would, perhaps fittingly enough, leave them tied with the league's other new team, the Blue Ridge Bombers. Perhaps Blue Ridge's professorial owner has studied up on Pythagoras, because this team is performing exactly as expected -- a perfect match for what's expected in terms of run differential and one-run game performance. They were the only team to play true to the numbers in the first quarter.

That leaves the league's worst three teams -- who, the numbers say, actually even worse than they've played over the first quarter! All three overachieved, which is a relative term considering they've lost two-thirds of their games. The Marietta Mighty Men lost the most games in the first quarter (14-30), and Pythagoras says they should have lost two more based on their league-worst -114 run differential. (They've actually lived up to expectations by going 1-4 in one-run games.) But even if they'd gone just 12-32, they wouldn't have the worst record. In fact, they wouldn't even be second-worst, as the Sardine City Straphangers got "lucky" with their 15-29 record; they should be more like 11-33. The Hangmen were two wins better than their -92 run differential would expect, and actually had a winning record in one-run games (5-4). With a little less luck they'd have gone 3-6 in those games. That'd leave them with 4 less wins... but not in last place. No, that dubious honor goes to New Jersey Team Buddah, who Pythagoras thinks should still be looking for their 10th win of the season. The Buddahs were 14-28 over the first quarter, 2 wins better than expected from a -80 run differential. They also went a surprising 6-7 in one-run games; three of those wins were apparently due to good karma. Take away all five wins and the Buddahs would be left with a 9-33 record, a game behind Sardine City for the league's worst record.

Cecil Fielder, the first selection in the DMBL's inaugural draft in 1991, enjoyed a solid career as a member of seven DMBL teams before retiring in 1998 with 102 HR and 322 RBIs. Click Here for past articles.