June 10, 2007  

In-season Report Card: The First Half

Believe it or not, we're already through the first half of the 2007 season. Every team has played at least 80 games, giving us an excellent sample size to review what has transpired so far and what is likely to happen over the home stretch.

In Good Standing

First let's take a look at the standings before play resumes on Sunday, June 10.

In the overall standings, the Newark Sugar Bears have the league's best record, leading the Philadelphia Endzone Animals by 2½ games. The Sugar Bears had a bigger lead for most of the first half, but squandered much of it over the last week by dropping their last three before the half, and four out of their last five, while the Endzone Animals were winning five out of their last six to make up three games in the standings. Each has a comfortable 10-game lead within its division... The Honolulu Sharks also made up ground on the Sugar Bears by winning three straight, and 8 out of their last 10, and are now the top wildcard seed with the league's third-best record... Just 2½ games behind them are the D.C. Bushslappers, who bounced back from a brutal first quarter to roar back into contention over the last month of the first half... The Marietta Mighty Men are in 5th place overall, 1½ games behind D.C., and a half-game ahead of the Vancouver Iron Fist. The Fisters are holding onto the final wildcard seed in 6th place; just a couple weeks ago, they were creeping up on the Endzone Animals for the Morris Division lead, but now they're 12 games out.

Six teams are battling it out in the no man's land between the race for the wildcard and the race for the most balls in the draft lottery. Tied at the front of the midpack in 7th place are the Arkansas Golden Falcons and the Hoboken Cutters, each a game under .500 and 6½ games behind the Iron Fist for the final wildcard spot. The Cutters have been the hotter team as of late, winning four out of their last five to close out the first half; the Falcs have dropped their last three in a row... The 9th-place Hillsborough Hired Hitmen are 2 games behind Arkansas/Hoboken, and 2 games behind the Hitmen sit the 10th-place Carolina Mudcats. Each will have to worry about getting to .500 before talking about the wildcard; the Hitmen are 5 under, while the 'Cats are 9, even after a four-game winning streak to end the first half... New Jersey Team Buddah, in 11th place at 10 games under .500, are just a half-game behind Carolina, and the South Boston Gang are just a half-game behind the Buddahs... New Jersey is certainly winning the battle of the inaugural teams, as the Sardine City Straphangers are 5½ games behind them. In fact, the 13th-place Hangmen are closer to last place (3 games) than to 12th place (5 games)... Bringing up the rear are the Las Vegas Rat Pack, who have won exactly one-third of their games this season. The Rats are on pace to lose 108 games, which would be the worst finish by any team since 2002 -- when their predecessors, the Harrison Rats, went 53-109. The Pack are 15 games behind the Iron Fist for the final wildcard spot and a whopping 29½ games behind Newark for the Hanover Division lead. 

My Place or Yours? Now let's take a look inside the standings. Which team is has the best home record? The Newark Sugar Bears (.707 HW%), followed by the Philadelphia Endzone Animals (.667 HW%). And which team has the best road record? The Sugar Bears (.674 RW%), followed by the Animals (.667 RW%)! Well, of course -- those two teams have, by wide margins, the best records in baseball. To determine which team truly has the best home-field advantage, we looked closer at the numbers to see who plays best at home relative to their overall record. The answer? The 13th-place Sardine City Straphangers, who are just 3 games under .500 at home (.459 HW%) -- nearly 90 points better than their overall .370 W%. The 9th-place Hillsborough Hired Hitmen also are a much more dangerous team at home; they've got a .553 HW% in their building, compared to a .470 overall W%, for a gain of 83 points... The Vancouver Iron Fist and New Jersey Team Buddah, each at +63 points, also are much better at home. Naturally, that must mean these teams stink on the road -- the Hangmen are a league-worst 13-31 (.295 RW%), New Jersey is third-worst at .386, the Hitmen are fourth-worst at .400 and the Iron Fist are sixth-worst at .447. Just slightly better at home relative to their overall record: The Carolina Mudcats (+30 points), the Hoboken Cutters (+19) and the Sugar Bears (+17)... Using the same principle, what team has the smallest home-field advantage? That would be the South Boston Gang, who are actually a better team on the road (.543 RW%) than at home (.348 HW%). That's -84 points in home winning percentage! There are five other teams that prefer hotels to home -- the Honolulu Sharks (-42 points), D.C. Bushslappers (-29), Las Vegas Rat Pack (-22), Arkansas Golden Falcons (-14) and Marietta Mighty Men (-13). The Endzone Animals have exactly the same winning percentage at home and on the road (.667).

Doing Splits: The Philadelphia Endzone Animals have the league's best record against lefties (.684 vsL W%), followed by the Newark Sugar Bears (.667 vsL W%); the Sugar Bears have the best record vs. righties (.706 vsR W%), followed by the Animals (.661 vsR W%). Once again, this merely reflects their overall records. So we looked inside the numbers again to see which teams had the biggest vsL/vsR splits relative to their overal records. And once again, the  Sardine City Straphangers sit atop the pack, with a decent 11-13 record vs. southpaws (.458 vsL W%), which is 88 points better than their overall winning percentage. It's much better to send a righty up against the Hangmen, as they have a .333 W% against them. Other teams who prefer lefties: Arkansas Golden Falcons (+71 points), the Hillsborough Hired Hitmen (+45), the Marietta Mighty Men (+20), the Vancouver Iron Fist (+20) and the Endzone Animals (+18)... Who wants to face a right-hander? The D.C. Bushslappers are 31-23 against righties (.574 vsR W%), but just 15-16 against lefties (.484 vsL W%). Their record against righties is a league-high 33 points better than their overall record. Also preferring the right side: The Las Vegas Rat Pack (+30); New Jersey Team Buddah (+15); the Sugar Bears (+15); the Hoboken Cutters (+6) and the South Boston Gang (+5). The Honolulu Sharks and South Boston Gang post the same record whether they're facing a lefty or a righty. (In case you were wondering, the league is 183-180 against lefties but 391-394 against righties.)

The Second Quarter

Team	Overall				1st Quarter			2nd Quarter			Change
	W	L	Pct	#	W	L	#	W	L	#	W	#
Newark	58	26	.690	1st	29	13	1st	29	13	2nd	0	5 T
Philadelphia	54	27	.667	2nd	27	13	2nd	27	14	3rd	0	5 T
Honolulu	48	36	.571	3rd	24	18	4th	24	18	4 T	0	5 T
D.C.	46	39	.541	4th	15	26	12 T	31	13	1st	+16	1st
Marietta	42	38	.525	5th	19	21	8th	23	17	4 T	+ 4	3rd
Vancouver	42	39	.519	6th	24	15	3rd	18	24	10 T	- 6	14th
Arkansas	41	42	.494	7 T	23	18	5th	18	24	10 T	- 5	12 T
Hoboken	40	41	.494	7 T	21	17	6th	19	24	7 T	- 2	11th
Hillsborough	39	44	.470	9th	22	19	7th	17	25	12th	- 5	12 T
Carolina	37	46	.446	10th	15	26	12 T	22	20	6th	+ 7	2nd
New Jersey	35	45	.438	11th	18	23	9th	17	22	7 T	- 1	8 T
South Boston	35	46	.432	12th	18	24	10th	17	22	7 T	- 1	8 T
Sardine City	30	51	.370	13th	14	24	11th	16	27	13th	+ 2	4th
Las Vegas	27	54	.333	14th	14	26	14th	13	28	14th	- 1	8 T

The D.C. Bushslappers were tied for 12th after the first quarter; now they're in 4th place. They went 15-26 in their first 41 games and then 31-13 over their next 46, an incredible +16 gain in wins. The next-most improved team were the Carolina Mudcats, who improved by 7 wins, followed by Matthew's Mighty Men of Marietta (+4) and the Sardine City Straphangers (+2). No one else improved from the first quarter to the second quarter; for the Newark Sugar Bears, Philadelphia Endzone Animals and Honolulu Sharks, it was enough just to play at the high-level they established over the first quarter, while the New Jersey Team Buddah, the Las Vegas Rat Pack and South Boston Gang were all just 1 win worse... The biggest drop-off over the second quarter was suffered by the Vancouver Iron Fist, who were 24-15 at the first turn but then went 18-24 over the second quarter, causing them to drop from 3rd to 6th in the standings. The Arkansas Golden Falcons and Hillsborough Hired Hitmen were next, each going 5 wins worse; the Hoboken Cutters had 2 less wins, but also 7 more losses, and dropped from 6th place after the first quarter into a tie for 7th at the half.

Who Got Lucky?

1st Half '07	Actual Performance							Pythagorean			1-Run			Adjusted
	W	L	Pct	#	RF	RA	Mgn	W	L	Luck	W	L	Luck	W	L	#
Newark	58	26	.690	1st	704	456	+248	59	25	- 1	12	7	- 1	60	24	1st
Philadelphia	54	27	.667	2nd	435	324	+111	52	29	+ 2	17	9	0	52	29	2nd
Honolulu	48	36	.571	3rd	483	412	+ 71	49	35	- 1	13	14	- 3	52	32	3rd
D.C.	46	39	.541	4th	441	424	+ 17	44	41	+ 2	16	14	0	44	41	6th
Marietta	42	38	.525	5th	468	406	+ 62	46	34	- 4	13	15	- 3	49	31	4th
Vancouver	42	39	.519	6th	438	458	- 20	39	42	+ 3	16	8	+ 5	34	47	11T
Arkansas	41	42	.494	7 T	439	468	- 29	39	44	+ 2	11	13	0	39	44	8 T
Hoboken	40	41	.494	7 T	444	741	- 27	38	43	+ 2	13	14	0	38	43	8 T
Hillsborough	39	44	.470	9th	441	458	- 17	40	43	- 1	11	17	- 2	42	41	7th
Carolina	37	46	.446	10th	434	482	- 48	37	46	0	11	15	- 1	38	45	10th
New Jersey	35	45	.438	11th	376	375	+  1	40	40	- 5	11	17	- 3	43	37	5th
South Boston	35	46	.432	12th	385	457	- 72	34	47	+ 1	8	11	0	34	47	11T
Sardine City	30	51	.370	13th	323	452	-129	27	54	+ 3	13	11	+ 5	22	59	14th
Las Vegas	27	54	.333	14th	358	526	-168	26	55	+ 1	7	7	+ 3	23	58	13th

If we went by the No Luck Standings, the three teams at the top would remain unchanged -- but it would be a tighter race for the league's second-best record. The Newark Sugar Bears should have had an even better first half than they actually did, as the numbers say they're about 2 wins unluckier than their actual record... Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Endzone Animals would still be in 2nd place overall, but instead of being just 2½ games behind Newark for the league lead, they'd be 6½ back if it weren't for Lady Luck. The Animals finished the first half 2 games better than their Pythagorean Winning Percentage... The Honolulu Sharks underachieved by 4 wins and if not for some unlucky breaks would find themselves tied with the Animals in the wins column for the league's second-best record, and 1½ games behind them overall. The Sharks can blame their bad luck on their 13-14 record in one-run games... The Marietta Mighty Men were the league's second-most unluckiest team, a whopping 7 wins worse than their expected record. If they played up to their potential, they'd be 49-31 and in 4th place overall, just 2 games behind Honolulu for the top wildcard seed. Marietta underperformed in both areas, going 4 wins worse than their Pythagorean Winning Percentage and 3 wins worse than their expected performance in one-run games... Now we come to the unluckiest team in baseball and also the squad that would have the biggest gain in the standings if it weren't for fate. And, oddly enough, it's New Jersey Team Buddah! Could it be karmic justice for some transgression in an earlier life? The Buddahs are, in reality, 10 games under .500 and in 11th place. Yet if it weren't for bad luck, they'd be 8 wins better -- which would put them 6 games over .500 and in 5th place! The Buddahs are the unluckiest team when it comes to Pythagorean Winning Percentage; despite their 35-45 record, they actually scored more runs (376) than they allowed (375) over the first half. That alone would give them 5 more wins. In addition, they're tied for the unluckiest performance in one-run games, losing about 3 more games than expected... The team that posted the best record over the second quarter, the D.C. Bushslappers, may not have been quite that good. The Slappers racked up an astounding 31-13 record over the second quarter, but it should have been more like 24-20; instead of posting the quarter's best record, it'd be fourth-best. On the other hand, they weren't quite as bad as they looked over the first quarter, either, as they were cheated out of 3 wins by Lady Luck. It all shakes out to a net of 2 "extra" wins. Without them, the Slappers would still be a playoff team -- but they would fall from 4th to 6th, with just a 1 game lead over 7th place.

The next four teams are basically in the right place -- between 7th and 10th place -- but just in different order. The Hillsborough Hired Hitmen are, in reality, in 9th place -- 5 games under .500 and 4 games out of the final playoff spot. If luck weren't involved, they'd be in 7th place -- 1 game over .500 and 1 game behind D.C. Lady Luck cheated the Hitters out of one win from their Pythagorean Winning Percentage and two wins from their expected record in one-win games. Credit them with those three wins and they're 42-41... Next come two teams who are tied whether you factor in luck or not. The Arkansas Golden Falcons and Hoboken Cutters are actually tied for 7th, 2 games out of the post-season, at a game under .500; each has been two games better than Pythagoras would expect. Both teams are right on target in terms of performance in one-run games. Take away those two wins and they're still tied, although now it's for 8th place -- 5 games under .500 and 4 games out of 6th place... Other than the top three teams, the only team that would be exactly in the same position in the standings in a luckless universe would be the Carolina Mudcats. The 10th-place 'Cats are 9 games under .500, which is in line with their Pythagorean Winning Percentage. They've won one less game than expected in one-run games, but even with that win that would still leave them in 10th place.

Now we come to the four teams bringing up the rear. And we're all thinking, where the hell are the 6th-place Vancouver Iron Fist? Well, here they are, way back in 11th place! If it weren't for some good fortune, that is. The Fisters are 3 wins better than their Pythagorean Winning Percentage and 5 games better than their expected one-run game record, which makes them a whopping 8 wins better than they "should" be. The Fisters are, in reality, 42-39, in 6th place, and just a half-game behind Marietta for 5th; but without luck, they'd drop into a tie for 11th, with a 34-47 record. The Iron Fist were very lucky over the first quarter (+5 wins) and somewhat lucky over the second quarter (+2); is fate already trying to balance the books? If so, it could be a rough second half for the defending Morris Division champs... The South Boston Gang could be tied with the Fisters, though it wouldn't mean much. The Gang, already in 12th place, would move up a half-rung into a tie for 11th even if they were deducted with the one win Pythagoras says they don't deserve... The final two teams would flip places in the standings without luck getting involved. The Las Vegas Rat Pack appear to be focused solely on next year's draft, and they'd certainly love having the most balls in the lottery hopper -- and their 27-54 record has them well on their way to that goal. But the numbers say the Rats are even worse than their record would suggest. They're one game better than their league-worst -168 run differential, and they've won three more one-run games than one would expect based on their overall performance. Those four wins would leave them at 23-58 and a .285 winning percentage -- the second-worst record in the DMB Era. (The '97 Phoenix Dragons piled up 118 losses and won just 44 games, a .272 W%). But even so, they'd have to settle for 13th place, because the Sardine City Straphangers would be even worse! In their inaugural season, the Hangman obviously opted for the "lay a foundation for the future" approach to being a first-year team, drafting all youngsters and telling them not to worry about their record. Well, in reality, they've gone 30-51, the league's second-worst record; but it turns out they've been pretty fortunate, because things could be so much worse. The Sardines are overachieving their Pythagorean Winning Percentage by three wins. Not only that, but they actually have a winning record (13-11) in one-run games, when the numbers suggest they should win more like a third of those contests. Add them together and the Straphangers are tied with the Iron Fist as the league's luckiest team -- 8 wins better than expected. Turn those wins into losses and they'd be 22-59, one game worse than the Rat Pack to claim 14th place.

Cecil Fielder, the first selection in the DMBL's inaugural draft in 1991, enjoyed a solid career as a member of seven DMBL teams before retiring in 1998 with 102 HR and 322 RBIs. Click Here for past articles.