June 30, 2008  

In-season Report Card: The First Half

Believe it or not, we're already more than half way through the 2008 season. Let's take a look at what happened over the first half as well as the second quarter of the season.

Let's Go Halfsies

First we'll take a look at the standings at the half-way point -- right before last week's All-Star Break.

In the overall standings, the Newark Sugar Bears finished the first half with the league's best record, but not by much -- they're just a half-game ahead of the Las Vegas Rat Pack for both the league and division leads. The Vancouver Iron Fist are 4 games behind the Sugar Bears for the top record but have a firm grasp on the Morris Division lead; the Philadelphia Endzone Animals are 2½ games behind them. The Rats and Animals had been on top of their respective divisions at the end of the first quarter. The D.C. Bushslappers are in 5th place overall, up one spot from where we left them at the end of the first quarter. And in 6th place we find the Tampa Bay Plunkers, who finished the first half with a .500 record; they switched spots from the first quarter with the Hillsborough Hired Hitmen, who are now in 7th place, a half-game behind the Plunkers.

The seven teams on top of the standings at the end of the first half also had the best records at the end of the first quarter, so of course the bottom seven teams at the end of the first quarter also had the seven worst records at the end of the first half. The Blue Ridge Bombers are in 8th place overall, 3 games behind Tampa Bay for a wildcard berth. The Bombers finished the first quarter in 11th place, so 8th is a considerable improvement. The Sardine City Straphangers have been even better; after finishing the first quarter tied for the league's second-worst record and just a game out of last place, the Hangmen finished the first quarter in 9th overall, just 5 games behind the Plunkers for a post-season ticket. The Arkansas Golden Falcons are in 10th place, a half-game behind Sardine City; that's down a spot from their first-quarter performance. The Carolina Mudcats fell even further, down three rungs to 11th place. At the end of the first quarter, New Jersey Team Buddah was tied for 12th place; that's where they find themselves now, but they're tied with another team. Instead of the Straphangers, it's the Hoboken Cutters who find themselves tied with the Buddahs for the second-worst record. Hoboken had been in 10th place, 5 games out of the post-season, at the first quarter; now they're just 3 games out of last place overall. Just one team found itself in the same place at the end of the first quarter and the first half -- that would be Matthew's Mighty Men of Marietta, who are still in dead last. 

Home Cookin': Everybody knows who has the best home record: That would be the Newark Sugar Bears, who were a ridiculous 34-8 in the Cereal Bowl (.810 HW%) over the first half. If you're curious, the best all-time home winning percentage is .790, set by Arkansas in 2002; the Sugar Bears would have to go 31-9 at home over the second half to beat them... The second-best home record was turned in by the Vancouver Iron Fist, who went 25-13 (.658 HW%) inside the friendly confines of the Irondome. The Las Vegas Rat Pack posted the third-best home record at 29-16 (.644 HW%), but that's actually worse than their overall record (.671 W%), so they're not really a good home team at all. In fact, the best home team relative to their overall record -- other than the Sugar Bears -- are the Blue Ridge Bombers, who had the sixth-best record at home (.543 HW%) but the eighth-best record overall (.463 W%), an improvement of 80 points. The Sugar Bears, by the way, are 131 points better at home than on the road. The Tampa Bay Plunkers (+75), Hillsborough Hired Hitmen (+70), Carolina Mudcats (+54) and Iron Fist (+44) are also much tougher on their home turf.

Road Warriors: So who do you call if you want a beat-down delivered to your door? The  Las Vegas Rat Pack are by far the best road team so far this year, going 28-12; that's an astounding .700 RW%. Their away record is better than anybody's home record, overlooking the Sugar Bears of course. The best all-time road record is 60-21, turned in by the 1997 Iron Fist; the Rats would have to go an even more impressive 34-8 (.810 RW%) the rest of the way to beat it. But if they can maintain their current pace, they'll tie the 2000 Jerusalem Rabbis for second-best all-time at 57-24... The second-best road team are the Philadelphia Endzone Animals, who, like the Rats, are actually better on the road (.675 RW%) than they are at home (.548 HW%). The Vancouver Iron Fist are third (.614 RW%), followed by the Newark Sugar Bears and D.C. Bushslappers, tied at .548. The Animals are actually the toughest road team relative to their overall record -- their .675 RW% is 67 points better than their overall record of .608. They're followed by the Rats (+26), the Hoboken Cutters (+21), Sardine City Straphangers (+15) and New Jersey Team Buddah (+13).

Your Place or Mine? A few teams don't care where they play. The Marietta Mighty Men were equally lousy at home (.348 HW%) or on the road (.342 RW%); they're the most balanced team when it comes to home/away splits, just 6 points. There's also not much difference when it comes to the D.C. Bushslappers (.535 HW%, .506 RW%, for 13 points) and Arkansas Golden Falcons (.421 HW%, .481 RW%, 18 points). In case you're curious, the league average is 38 points -- .519 HW%, .481 RW%. The most extreme swings are the Newark Sugar Bears (262 points), Blue Ridge Bombers (182), Philadelphia Endzone Animals (137) and Hillsborough Hired Hitmen (132).

This Left Feels Right: Relative to their overall record, the Carolina Mudcats are the league's best lefty killers -- they're 9-6 against lefties (.600 vsL W%), which is 180 points better than their overall winning percentage of .420. You also might want to consider benching your southpaws against the Tampa Bay Plunkers (+167), D.C. Bushslappers (+141), Sardine City Straphangers (+125), Hoboken Cutters (+99), New Jersey Team Buddah (+69), Las Vegas Rat Pack (+33), the Vancouver Iron Fist (+33) and Marietta Mighty Men (+30). But you're better off starting a left-hander if you're facing the Blue Ridge Bombers, who are 31-31 against righthanders. That doesn't sound too impressive unless you remember they're 38-44 overall. The Bombers are just 7-13 against lefties (.350 vs LW%), the worst record in the league; the split is a difference of -113 points. Who else doesn't like southpaws? The Philadelphia Endzone Animals (-108); Newark Sugar Bears (-42); Hillsborough Hired Hitmen (-39) and Arkansas Golden Falcons (-9). Overall, the league has a .545 W% against lefties, or +45... By the way, the Sugar Bears have the best record against righties (.694 vsR W%) while the Rat Pack have the best record against lefties (.704 vsL W%); the Bombers have the worst record against lefties (.350 vsL W%) and the Cutters and Mighty Men are tied for the worst record against righties (.338 vsR W%).

The Second Quarter

Team	Overall				1st Quarter			2nd Quarter			Change
	W	L	Pct	#	W	L	#	W	L	#	W	#
Newark	57	27	.679	1st	27	15	3rd	30	12	1st	+ 3	3rd
Las Vegas	57	28	.671	2nd	31	12	1st	26	16	3rd	- 5	11th
Vancouver	52	30	.634	3rd	25	19	4 T	27	11	2nd	+ 2	4 T
Philadelphia	48	31	.608	4th	29	13	2nd	19	18	6 T	-10	14th
D.C.	46	39	.541	5th	24	20	4th	22	19	5th	- 2	9 T
Tampa Bay	41	41	.500	6th	20	19	7th	21	22	8th	+ 1	6 T
Hillsborough	41	42	.494	7th	25	19	4 T	16	23	11th	- 9	13th
Blue Ridge	38	44	.463	8th	18	25	11th	20	19	6 T	+ 2	4 T
Sardine City	37	47	.440	9th	15	29	12T	22	18	4th	+ 7	1st
Arkansas	34	45	.430	10th	17	22	9th	17	23	10th	0	8th
Carolina	34	47	.420	11th	20	22	8th	14	25	13th	- 6	12th
New Jersey	32	51	.386	12T	14	28	12T	18	23	9th	+ 4	2nd
Hoboken	30	49	.380	12T	16	22	10th	14	27	14th	- 2	9 T
Marietta	29	55	.345	14th	14	30	14th	15	25	12th	+ 1	6 T

The Sardine City Straphangers made the biggest jump from the first quarter to the second, improving by 7 wins from where they were after the first quarter. The Hangmen were tied for 12th and just a game out of having the league's worst record after their first 44 games; over their next 40, they improved by 7 wins and jumped up to 9th place overall, 5 games out of a wildcard berth. The Strappers went 22-18 over the second quarter, which was the fourth-best record over that stretch; the top mark was set by the Newark Sugar Bears, who went 30-12 (.714 W%), followed by the Vancouver Iron Fist (27-11) and Las Vegas Rat Pack (26-16). But while Newark's second quarter mark represented an improvement of 3 wins and Vancouver's a gain of 4, Las Vegas's record actually was 5 wins worse than it had been over the first quarter... The worst performance in the second quarter was turned in by the Hoboken Cutters, who went 14-27, followed by the Carolina Mudcats (14-25), Matthew's Mighty Men of Marietta (15-25) and the Hillsborough Hired Hitmen (16-23). Hoboken and Marietta had been pretty bad in the first quarter as well, but for Hillsborough, their second-quarter performance dropped them from a 4th place tie to 7th, a decline of 9 wins from their first quarter mark of 25-19. The biggest dropoff, though, goes to the Philadelphia Endzone Animals, who were 29-13 in the first quarter but 19-18 in the second, a loss of 10 wins. The Animals dropped from 2nd overall to 4th.

Who Got Lucky?

2008 1st Quarter	Actual Performance						Pythagorean			1-Run			Adjusted
	W	L	#	RF	RA	Mgn	W	L	Luck	W	L	Luck	W	L	Luck	#
Newark	57	27	1st	665	442	+223	58	26	- 1	11	9	- 3	61	23	- 4	1 T
Vancouver	52	30	3rd	527	355	+172	56	26	- 4	10	10	- 4	60	22	- 8	1 T
Philadelphia	48	31	4th	482	388	+ 94	48	31	0	10	5	+ 1	47	32	+ 1	3rd
Las Vegas	57	28	2nd	514	408	+106	52	33	+ 5	16	4	+ 4	48	37	+ 9	4th
Blue Ridge	38	44	8th	389	393	-  4	41	41	- 3	6	11	- 2	43	39	- 5	5th
D.C.	46	39	5th	428	425	+ 3	43	42	+ 3	11	11	0	43	42	+ 3	6 T
Hillsborough	41	42	7th	377	376	+ 1	42	41	- 1	15	16	0	42	41	- 1	6 T
Arkansas	34	45	10th	428	468	- 40	36	43	- 2	8	11	- 1	37	42	- 3	8th
Carolina	34	47	11th	371	412	- 41	36	45	- 2	12	16	- 1	37	44	- 3	9th
Tampa Bay	41	41	6th	384	408	- 24	39	43	+ 2	11	10	+ 2	37	45	+ 4	10th
Hoboken	30	49	12T	353	427	- 74	32	47	- 2	9	13	0	32	47	- 2	11th
Sardine City	37	47	9th	357	446	- 89	33	51	+ 4	10	10	+ 2	31	53	+ 6	12th
New Jersey	32	51	12T	290	403	-113	28	55	+ 4	14	15	+ 4	24	59	+ 8	13th
Marietta	29	55	14th	343	557	-214	23	61	+ 6	7	9	+ 3	20	64	+ 9	14th

So which team got screwed the most over the first half? Believe it or not, it's the Commissioner's team! The Vancouver Iron Fist performed 8 wins worse than the numbers would indicate, and if Pythagoras called the shots, the Iron Fist would be tied with the Newark Sugar Bears for the best overall record. The Fisters underperformed their second-best +172 run differential by four games; they're also just 10-10 in one-run games, but better luck would have them 4 wins better in that department as well, at 14-6. The Sugar Bears also aren't performing as well as could be expected; they're a win shy of what would be predicted of a team with a +223 run differential, and their 11-9 record in one-run games should be 3 wins better, for a net loss of 4 wins.

The Philadelphia Endzone Animals would move up a spot to 3rd place overall, but they'd be much farther back of the Iron Fist -- 11½ games instead of the current 2½. They're the only team sitting exactly where Pythagoras thinks they should be based on their run differential, but their 10-5 record in one-run games might be one win luckier than it should be... The Las Vegas Rat Pack are tied for the league's luckiest record over the first half. Their +106 run differential is good, but Pythagoras thinks that would make them a 52-win team, not 57. And their incredible 16-4 record in one-run games also looks lucky; a still-impressive 12-8 mark would be more apt. Will things even out over the second half? You never know with a team from Vegas! The biggest leap forward if we took luck out of the equation would go to the Blue Ridge Bombers. Pythagoras is very impressed with the plucky first-year franchise, thinking they should be hanging onto a wildcard berth instead of in 8th place. The Bombers have allowed just 4 more runs than they've scored, which Pythagoras thinks should even out to a .500 record; instead they're six games under. And their 6-11 record in one-run games also is surprising; again, they should be closer to .500, maybe 8-9. Give them those 5 wins and suddenly the Bombers are 4 games over .500 and in 5th place.

The D.C. Bushslappers and Hillsborough Hired Hitmen "should" be tied, but they'd take very different paths to get there. Pythagoras believes the 5th place Bushslappers are a little overrated and the 7th place Hitmen are a little underrated, so it's fitting they meet in the middle at 6th place. The Bushslappers are 46-39 despite a run differential barely breaking even (428 RF, 425 RA); they ought to be more like 43-42. And the Hitmen are 41-42, despite a +1 run margin; their record could just as easily be reversed, at 42-41. Both teams are around .500 in one-run games and that's what would be expected. If you take three wins from the Slappers and give one to the Hitmen, they'd be tied in 6th place, a game over .500.

The Arkansas Golden Falcons and Carolina Mudcats would be slightly better off if luck didn't factor into their games, but not by much. The two teams had almost identical records over the first half (Arkansas was 34-45 with a -40 run margin; Carolina was 34-47 with a -41), and each is probably three wins better than their record indicates. Pythagoras says each should pick up two wins based on their runs scored/allowed margins and another wrin based on their lackluster performance in one-run games. Pythagoras would move each up two spots in the standings -- the Falcons to 8th and the Mudcats to 9th.

The Tampa Bay Plunkers are the biggest benefactor when it comes to luck, according to my slide rule. The Splashers treaded water over the first half, going exactly .500 to cling to 6th place -- but Pythagoras says they're likely to sink over the second half. The Plunks have a -24 run margin, which ranks 8th in the league; that's the run differential of a team two wins worse than .500. And their 11-10 record in one-run games is also a little lucky; the numbers would indicate they should be more like 9-12 in close contests. Take away those four "lucky" wins and the TB's would be 37-45 and in 10th place... On the other hand, the Hoboken Cutters are bad, but probably not this bad. Their run-differential is fourth worst in the league at -74, yet they're tied for the second-worst record overall. Pythagoras would expect two more wins. Their 9-13 record in one-run games is about right. So give them two more wins, and they're 32-47 and in 11th place -- not exactly a reason to call off the rebuilding plans.

That leaves the three teams Pythagoras thinks are the league's worst -- and all of them benefitted from luck over the first half, believe it or not. The biggest beneficiaries were the  Sardine City Straphangers, who are in 9th place and possibly making a post-season run, as they're just 5 games out of the wildcard race. The numbers say the Straphangers are likely to get derailed come the second half. Their -89 run margin is third-worst in baseball; just how did they get all the way to 9th place? Pythagoras thinks they're overachieving by 4 wins in that department. They also split their 20 one-run games in the first half, which seems unlikely given how few runs they score and how many they allow. An 8-12 record would be more likely. In the "no luck" standings they'd have 6 less wins, which would put them three spots lower at 12th place... What does the Buddha think of luck? Enlightenment may be on the way for New Jersey Team Buddah, which tied for 12th over the first half -- and more likely should be 13th. The Buddahs have scored just 290 runs while giving up 403, a -113 run differential -- which is probably 4 wins worse than their 32-51 record. And how does a team with such a lousy run margin go nearly .500 in one-run games (14-15)? Pythagoras would think they'd be more like a 10-19 team. Take away 8 wins and they'd have 13th place all to themselves, at 24-59... But that's still not enough losses to catch the league's worst team, which, believe it or not, is tied with Las Vegas as the league's luckiest. Yes, the numbers say the 29-55 record compiled by Matthew's Mighty Men of Marietta is actually 6 wins better than they deserve, given their -214 run margin. And their 7-9 record in one-run games is also the result of some lucky bounces; a 4-12 record would be more likely. Add it up and that's 9 wins courtesy of Lady Luck, tying them with Las Vegas for the most fortunate first half. If the Mighty Men didn't have those 9 wins, they'd have just picked up their 20th win, against 64 losses. It's likely to be a long second half in Marietta, but cheer up, Four M fans -- the 2009 Draft is just eight months away!

Cecil Fielder, the first selection in the DMBL's inaugural draft in 1991, enjoyed a solid career as a member of seven DMBL teams before retiring in 1998 with 102 HR and 322 RBIs. Click Here for past articles.