July 22, 2006  

In-season Report Card: The Third Quarter

We're heading into the final stretch as most teams have played about 120 games, making this the start of the fourth quarter of the season. Before 2006 leaves us completely, let's take a closer look at the standings with three quarters of the season in the books.

In Good Standing

First let's take a look at the standings as of Saturday, July 22.

In the overall standings, the Newark Sugar Bears have  the league's best record at the end of the third quarter, leading the Carolina Mudcats by 5 games... The Vancouver Ironfist, 3 games behind Carolina, have the league's 3rd-best record, a game ahead of the Las Vegas Rat Pack. Then there's a big drop-off to 5th place, where we find the Hoboken Cutters 4½ games behind the Rats and a whopping 13½ games behind the Sugar Bears for the division lead. Tied with Hoboken in the wins column, but 1½ games back overall, are the 6th-place Marietta Mighty Men. Just a half-game behind them lurk the 7th-place Arkansas Golden Falcons. Tied for 8th place, but just 1½ games out of the post-season, are the Philadelphia Endzone Animals and the Hillsborough Hired Hitmen... The South Boston Gang are in 10th place, but they've still got a shot at the playoffs -- they're just 3½ games out of 6th... The other four teams are pretty much playing out the string, though none has been mathematically eliminated from the post-season (or winning the division, for that matter). In 11th place sit the Honolulu Sharks, 11½ games out of the playoff picture. A game behind them are the 12th-place Phoenix Dragons. The D.C. Bushslappers come next, 14 games behind Marietta for the final playoff berth, and bringing up the rear are the Westwood Deductions, who trail D.C. by 1½ games.

Home Cookin': Which team has the biggest home-field advantage? Believe it or not, it's the 13th-place Bushslappers. The Slappers are 33-28 at home (.541 W%), compared to a league-worst 15-44 on the road (.254 W%). Their +.287 home/road differential is the highest in baseball, followed by Las Vegas (+.269), Philly (+.213), Hoboken and Honolulu (+.205) and Newark (+.182)... The league average is +.133, so Phoenix (+.125) is more or less breaking even, while Westwood and Arkansas (each at +.109) are actually slightly underperforming at home... The worst home team are the Mighty Men, who are the only team with a better winning percentage on the road (.557) than at home (.475). Their -.083 differential is by far the worst in the league. Also not getting much of a home-field boost are Vancouver (+.035), Carolina (+.053), South Boston (+.085) and Hillsborough (.091)... Overall, the top 5 home teams are Newark (.729 W%), Las Vegas (.695), Hoboken (.632), Carolina (.627) and Philly (.603), while the top 5 road teams are Carolina (.574 W%), Marietta (.557), Vancouver (.548), Newark (.547) and Hillsborough (.450). In case you were curious, the league average is a .566 W% at home, .434 W% on the road.

Division and Conquer: The biggest bully against divisional opponents are the Rat Pack, whose .673 W% (33-16) against their fellow Hanovers is +.115 better than their overall W% of .562. The Sugar Bears, who are an incredible  38-13 (.745 W%) in their division, are next, +.111 better than their overall record. The Morris Division's South Boston (+.058) and Carolina (+.053) are the only other teams with better divisional records than their overall records... The worst teams in their own division, relative to their overall record, are the Deductions (-.048), just ahead of a four-way tie at -.046 between D.C., Phoenix, Arkansas and Vancouver... Overall, the top 5 teams against their own division are Newark (.745 W%), Las Vegas (.673), Carolina (.653), South Boston (.542) and Vancouver (.520); the top 5 teams in inter-division play are Vancouver (.597), Carolina (.563), Newark (.556), Marietta (.542) and a tie between Arkansas and Hoboken (.535). 

The Third Quarter

3rd Q '06	Overall				Home			Road			vs LHP			vs RHP
	W	L	Pct	#	W	L	#	W	L	#	W	L	#	W	L	#
Carolina	25	14	.641	1st	11	8	5 T	14	6	1st	7	3	3 T	18	11	2 T
Newark	24	16	.600	2nd	11	8	5 T	13	8	2nd	7	3	3 T	17	13	4th
Marietta	23	17	.575	3rd	12	9	10th	11	8	3rd	4	7	12th	19	10	1st
Arkansas	22	17	.564	4 T	15	6	2nd	7	11	7 T	7	4	5th	15	13	5th
Vancouver	22	17	.564	4 T	12	7	11th	10	10	5th	10	4	2nd	12	13	8th
Hoboken	20	16	.556	6th	13	4	1st	7	12	9th	2	5	14th	18	11	2 T
Hillsborough	20	18	.526	7th	10	10	12th	10	8	4th	8	2	1st	12	16	11th
Las Vegas	20	20	.500	8 T	14	7	3rd	6	13	10th	4	4	7 T	16	16	6 T
South Boston	19	19	.500	8 T	11	7	4th	8	12	6th	5	5	7 T	14	14	6 T
Philadelphia	18	19	.486	10th	11	8	5 T	7	11	7 T	6	5	6th	12	14	9 T
Honolulu	16	21	.432	11th	11	8	5 T	5	13	12th	5	8	11th	11	13	9 T
D.C.	15	25	.375	12th	11	8	5 T	4	17	13th	6	8	9th	9	17	12th
Phoenix	13	24	.351	13th	7	9	13th	6	15	11th	4	6	10th	9	18	13th
Westwood	12	26	.316	14th	9	12	14th	3	14	14th	3	7	13th	9	19	14th

The Carolina Mudcats lead the pack with the league's best record over the third quarter.  At the half-way point, the 'Cats were tied for the Morris Division lead, tied for 3rd overall and 6½ games out of the league lead; now they have a 3-game division lead, are in 2nd overall and are 5 games behind the league leader... The Newark Sugar Bears extended their league-best record against everybody else, adding 4 games to their division lead to make it a 9-game lead with 39 to play, a magic number of 32... Matthew's Mighty Men of Marietta had an awesome third quarter, improving from 3 games under .500 at the half-way point to 3 games over .500 and the league's 6th-best record... Also having winning third quarters were the Arkansas Golden Falcons and Vancouver Ironfist, tied at 22-17; the Hoboken Cutters at 20-16; and the Hillsborough Hired Hitmen at 20-18... The Las Vegas Rat Pack (20-20) and South Boston Gang (19-19) broke even... The Philadelphia Endzone Animals had a disappointing quarter, finishing one game under .500 at 18-19 to fall to 6th place into an 8th-place tie... The league's four worst teams continued to struggle, with the Honolulu Sharks (16-21), D.C. Bushslappers (15-25), Phoenix Dragons (13-24) and Westwood Deductions (12-26) falling further off the pace.

Home Boys: The Cutters had the best home record in the third quarter, going 13-4 in Hoboken. They were followed by Arkansas (15-6), Las Vegas (14-7), South Boston (11-7) and -- no, that wasn't a typo -- a five-way tie for 5th place at 11-8... Westwood (9-12) and Phoenix (7-9) were the only teams to post losing records at home in the third quarter... The best road team was Carolina (14-6), followed by Newark (13-8), Marietta (11-8) and Hillsborough (10-8). Vancouver (10-10) broke even on the road; everybody else had a losing record... The worst road team was Westwood (3-14), giving them the dubious honor of being worst at home and on the road. They were followed by D.C. (4-17), Honolulu (5-13) and Phoenix (6-15). Las Vegas had the fifth-worst road record at 6-13; a record closer to .500 and they'd have kept pace with Newark.

Left Out: The Hired Hitmen were gunning for southpaws in the third quarter, going a league-best 8-2 against them. The Ironfist (10-4) also enjoyed facing lefties, as did the Mudcats (7-3), Sugar Bears (7-3) and Golden Falcons (7-4). But portsiders had the upper hand against Hoboken (2-5), Westwood (3-7), Marietta (4-7), Honolulu (5-8) and Westwood (3-7)... The Mighty Men took out their frustration against righties, leading the league with a 19-10 mark against them in the third quarter. Also posting good marks against righties were Hoboken (18-11), Carolina (18-11), Newark (17-13) and Arkansas (15-13). The league's three worst teams fared worst against righties -- Westwood (9-19), Phoenix (9-18) and D.C. (9-17). Hillsborough (12-16) also had a losing record against them, as did Philly (12-14), Honolulu (11-13) and Vancouver (12-13)... Las Vegas and South Boston were the only teams not to show a preference; each went .500 no matter who was pitching.

Who Got Lucky?

3rd Q '06	Actual Performance							Pythagorean			1-Run			Adjusted
	W	L	Pct	#	RF	RA	Mgn	W	L	Luck	W	L	Luck	W	L	#
Carolina	25	14	.641	1st	197	173	+24	22	17	+ 3	12	3	+ 4	18	21	8th
Newark	24	16	.600	2nd	278	230	+48	24	16	0	4	4	- 1	24	16	2nd
Marietta	23	17	.575	3rd	250	216	+34	23	17	0	4	10	- 4	27	13	1st
Arkansas	22	17	.564	4 T	173	173	0	20	20	+ 3	7	4	+ 2	18	21	9 T
Vancouver	22	17	.564	4 T	243	259	-16	18	21	+ 4	9	5	+ 2	16	23	12th
Hoboken	20	16	.556	6th	176	152	+24	21	15	- 1	6	7	- 1	22	14	3 T
Hillsborough	20	18	.526	7th	234	205	+29	21	17	- 1	4	6	- 2	23	15	3 T
Las Vegas	20	20	.500	8 T	170	161	+ 9	21	19	- 1	8	9	- 1	22	18	5th
South Boston	19	19	.500	8 T	195	189	+ 6	20	18	- 1	6	4	+ 1	19	19	6 T
Philadelphia	18	19	.486	10th	166	169	- 3	18	19	0	10	8	+ 1	17	20	9 T
Honolulu	16	21	.432	11th	166	183	-17	17	20	- 1	3	7	- 2	18	19	6 T
D.C.	15	25	.375	12th	182	209	-27	17	23	- 2	5	6	0	17	23	11th
Phoenix	13	24	.351	13th	161	208	-47	14	23	- 1	4	6	0	14	23	13th
Westwood	12	26	.316	14th	155	219	-64	13	25	- 1	4	7	0	12	26	14th

If we went by the No Luck Standings, the best team over the third quarter should have been the Marietta Mighty Men, who were cheated out of 4 wins -- all stemming from their unexpectedly wretched 4-10 record in one-run games. With a +34 run margin, the Mites should have been more like 8-6. The 4-game swing in the standings made them the unluckiest team in baseball in the third quarter, followed by the Hillsborough Hired Hitmen and Honolulu Sharks at -3, the Hoboken Cutters, Las Vegas Rat Pack and D.C. Bushslappers at -2,  and the Newark Sugar Bears, Phoenix Dragons and Westwood Deductions at -1.

The only team that broke even in terms of luck were the South Boston Gang, who underachieved by 1 win based on their +6 run margin, but overachieved by 1 win in one-run games. Take away luck and they're still a .500 team.

The luckiest team over the third quarter rode their good fortune all the way to the Morris Division lead. The Carolina Mudcats overachieved by 7 games over the third quarter. They beat their Pythagorean Winning Percentage by 3 wins, and beat their expected performance in one-run games by another 4 wins by posting an amazing 12-3 record in close contests. Without those 7 wins, the Mudcats would have finished the third quarter at 18-21... But don't feel too bad for the teams chasing Carolina in the standings. The only other teams that beat their Pythagorean and one-run expectations in the third quarter were the three teams behind them -- the Vancouver Ironfist, who overachieved by 6 wins; the Arkansas Golden Falcons, who overachieved by 5; and the Philadelphia Endzone Animals, who overachieved by 1. Take luck out of the equation and everyone is pretty much where they wound up anyway, though it would put Hillsborough right in the middle of the race.

Cecil Fielder, the first selection in the DMBL's inaugural draft in 1991, enjoyed a solid career as a member of seven DMBL teams before retiring in 1998 with 102 HR and 322 RBIs. Click Here for past articles.