July 29, 2003  

Pythagorean Baseball Update

Let's take another look inside the numbers as we're about three-quarters of the way through the 2003 season.

At about the midway point, we looked at the Pythagorean Theorem (runs scored plus runs allowed, divided by runs scored squared plus runs allowed squared) to see who was lucky and who was good over the first half; let's see whose luck is still holding as we head into the final stretch.

				Expected			Actual
2001	RF	RA	Diff	PCT	W	L	PCT	W	L	+/-
NWK	737	543	+194	0.648	78	43	0.669	81	40	+3
ARK	636	521	+165	0.598	73	49	0.582	71	51	-2
STP	618	564	+ 54	0.546	65	55	0.592	71	49	+6
PHI	517	488	+29	0.529	64	57	0.488	59	62	-5
VAN	560	531	+29	0.527	63	57	0.517	62	58	-1
CAR	502	479	+23	0.523	62	57	0.538	64	55	+2
HON	574	559	+15	0.513	63	59	0.508	62	60	-1
HIL	512	553	-41	0.462	55	64	0.437	52	67	-3
HBK	542	591	-49	0.457	54	65	0.471	56	63	+2
BRK	529	579	-50	0.455	54	65	0.487	58	61	+4
HAR	485	535	-50	0.451	54	65	0.434	53	69	-2
PHX	542	601	-59	0.449	55	68	0.455	56	67	+1
TIJ	551	657	-106	0.413	50	71	0.421	51	70	+1
COL	458	562	-104	0.399	49	73	0.402	49	73	0

There's not much of a change in the standings, though some teams do flip places. The biggest change is between 2nd and 3rd place overall -- the numbers say the second-place Stanhope Mighty Men are the league's luckiest team, and the third-place Arkansas Golden Falcons are one of the league's unluckiest! Stanhope (+54 run diff) should be about six games worse than their 71-49 mark, which would put them in 3rd place overall -- and far closer to 7th place (3 games) than to 2nd (7 games). Meanwhile, the Golden Falcons (+165 run diff) are two games worse than the theorem suggests they should be. With two more wins and two less losses, they'd be at 73-49 -- comfortably in 2nd place, though still 5½ games out of 1st.

The league's biggest underachievers have been the Philadelphia Endzone Animals. The numbers say they're good enough (+29 run diff) to be tied for 4th, just 1½ games out of the top wildcard seed, but instead they're tied for 7th, 2½ games out of the playoffs. The Hillsborough Destroyers are also worse than expected: They should be 3 games better than their 52-67 mark, which would bump them up from 11th overall to 8th. The Harrison Rats are two wins worse than expected, which would inch them up from 12th overall to a 10th-place tie, while the Vancouver Iron Fist and the Honolulu Sharks are each one win worse than expected.

At the halfway point, the Brooklyn Bean Counters were the league's luckiest team, three games better than expected, and they've still got Lady Luck as their bench coach as they're four games better than their -50 run differential would indicate. The Bean Counters would drop from a tie for 7th, 2½ games out of the post-season, into a tie for 10th overall. Behind Stanhope and Brooklyn, the Newark Sugar Bears, with a +194 run diff, come in third-luckiest as they're three games better than expected -- though even three-game swing would still leave them the best team in baseball at 78-43. Next come the Carolina Mudcats and the Hoboken Cutters, each overachieving by two games; the Mudcats would fall from 4th to 6th, but the Cutters would remain in 9th. The Phoenix Dragons and Tijuana Banditos are each one game better than Pythagoras thinks they should be.

Bringing up the rear no matter how you crunch the numbers, the Columbia Rattlesnakes' -104 run-differential predicts they'd be 49-73 and in last place overall -- and that's exactly where they are. It just goes to show you, sometimes the numbers don't lie.

Cecil Fielder was the first selection in the DMBL's inaugural draft in 1991. Since then he's enjoyed a solid career as a member of seven DMBL teams. He is now retired and serves as the color man for the Columbia Rattlesnakes radio team. Click Here for past articles.