 |
 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Aug. 6, 2007 |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
The Playoff Picture Most teams have just 20 games left on the season, but the playoff picture is still very much out of focus! Just one team is officially in (and has secured one of the top two seeds at that); meanwhile, just two teams have been mathematically eliminated. That means 11 teams are still in the race for the five remaining playoff spots! We'll take a look at each team's remaining schedule to try to get a sneak peek at the post-season. It's Over! As we mentioned above, just three teams
already know their post-season fate. The Newark
Sugar Bears (103-39; 20 games remaining) have clinched their
seventh-straight Hanover Division title. Almost In Two other teams are virtually assured of
playoff berths. Almost Out Meanwhile, there are four teams that are
calling on Mike and the Mechanics at this point in
the season. And how fitting is it that the team most in need of
spiritual help is Team Buddah
(59-81; 22 games remaining). The 12th-place Buddahs would have to win
all their remaining games just to finish at .500, and even then they'd
need a lot of help to reach the post season. The Enlightened Ones have
a tragic number of 8 before their post-season hopes are officially
extinguished -- but then there's always the next life, or in this case,
next year... Just ahead of the Buddahs, in 11th place, sits the South Boston Gang (62-79; 21 games remaining). Five Teams, Three Spots, One Dream That leaves five teams fighting it out for the three remaining playoff berths: D.C. Bushslappers, Hillsborough Hired Hitmen, Hoboken Cutters, Honolulu Sharks and Vancouver Iron Fist. In a few weeks, three of these teams will be heading to the promised land and two will be heading to the golf course. For the table below, we looked at each team's current record and placement in the overall standings; how many games it is either ahead of or behind the 6th place team; how many games the team has remaining, and how many of those are home or away; the "strength of schedule," which is the combined records of all the opponents the team will face; and "weighted schedule," which is each opponent's winning percentage multipled by the number of games remaining against that team. In either case, a higher winning percentage means a tougher remaining schedule; a lower winning percentage indicates an easier schedule.
D.C. Bushslappers (76-67, .531) The Bushslappers have had some dramatic ups
and downs this season. After getting off to a miserable start (15-26),
the Bushslappers rebounded with the league's best record in the second
quarter (31-13) to climb back into the race. And after posting the
league's fourth-best record over the third quarter (22-16), it looked
like they would have an easy time clinching a wildcard seed, if not the
Morris Division record. Hillsborough Hired Hitmen (73-67, .521) The Hitmen are tied for 5th place, but hold
the tiebreaker against the Cutters as they've gone 6-2 against them
this season. The Hitmen were in 9th place at the All-Star Break, but
came back with a furious third quarter, posting the league's
second-best record (27-14) over that stretch to jump all the way to 5th
place. They've hit a rough patch, losing 7 out of their last 10, and
they'll have to pull out of it soon as they have very little margin for
error, with just a half-game lead over 7th-place Honolulu. Hoboken Cutters (73-67, .521) Usually 6th place is a precarious position,
but the Cutters might have the most going for them heading into the
final 22 games of the season. First up, and most importantly, all 22
games they have left on their schedule will be played in Hoboken, where
the Cutters are 33-26 (.559); Honolulu Sharks (74-69, .517) The Sharks are just a half-game out of the
post-season, but they may have the longest odds of any team to reach
the party at this point. The Sharks have by far the toughest remaining
schedule of any of the five contenders; of their seven opponents, just
two have losing records. And while the Sharks do have the second-most
home games remaining, with 14 against just 5 road games, that's not the
boon it is for most other teams -- the Sharks are just 34-33 in
Honolulu (.507) compared to 40-36 on the road (.526). Vancouver Iron Fist (72-68, .514) After missing the post-season in
back-to-back years -- after missing the playoffs just once in the first
11 years of the league -- the Iron Fist roared back as the top wildcard
seed in '05 and as the Morris Division winner in '06. But now it looks
like the storied franchise may have taken another step backward as they
find themselves 1½ games out of the post-season. But
Owner/Commish Yaro Zajac is eeriely confident
about his team's chances this year; in fact, he's reportedly scheduled
to fly overseas to scout for baseball talent in Eastern Europe during
the final two weeks of the season. "I'm confident I will come home to
find my Iron Fisters where they belong -- in the playoffs!" Zajac
declared before boarding a 747 bound for the Republic of Elbonia. So
does the Commissioner know something we don't know? Well, the Iron Fist
have been playing better as of late, winning 12 out of their last 19
games. Cecil Fielder was the first selection in the DMBL's inaugural draft in 1991. Since then he's enjoyed a solid career as a member of seven DMBL teams. He is now retired and serves as the color man for the Columbia Rattlesnakes radio team. Click Here for past articles. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Meanwhile, the their
magic number
to clinch the best record in baseball is 10. But even if they
somehow don't claim the Commissioner's Cup, they'll still head into the
post-season as the No. 2 seed -- which means a first-round bye and
home-field advantage in the second round. Oh, and in case you were
wondering: The Sugar Bears would have to go 17-3 just to tie the
all-time wins record of 120-42, set in 2002 by Arkansas. However, they
need to go just 9-11 to set a new team record... The two other teams
that have already closed the books on the season did so in a bad way.
The last-place Las Vegas Rat Pack (43-98, 21
games remaining) could run the table and still finish no higher than
9th place. The Sardine City Straphangers
(48-91; 23 games remaining) also could do no better than 9th even
if they won all their remaining games. The Rats "lead" the Hangmen by 6
games in the race for the league's worst record (and thus the best
chance at the first overall pick in next year's draft); the Pack's
tragic number to clinch 14th place is 17. 
The Philadelphia Endzone Animals
(89-50; 23 games remaining) have a commanding 15-game lead in the
Morris Division race; their magic number to clinch their first-ever
division title, and no worse than the No. 2 seed in the post-season, is
7; their magic number to clinch any kind of playoff berth is 6. Another
team that's in barring an epic collapse is Matthew's
Mighty Men of Marietta (80-60; 22 games remaining). With
Newark clinching the Hanover, the best the Mites can do is the top
wildcard seed, but they're well on their way to that goal; their magic
number to clinch the third-best record is 16. Their magic number just
to clinch any kind of playoff berth is 15.
The Gang have a tragic number of 10 before they are
mathematically eliminated... In 10th place, 8 games out of the final
playoff spot, sit the Arkansas Golden Falcons
(65-75; 22 games remaining) -- but you can never count them out of the
post-season. In fact, the Falcs have been to the post-season a
league-record 14 straight seasons; the only time they weren't in the
big dance was in the league's inaugural season, when only the top two
teams went (and they finished 3rd!). That streak will come to an end
with 14 Arkansas losses and/or wins by the Sharks. Another streak on
the line is their league record 15 straight winning seasons (they've
never had a losing record). The Falcs need to go 17-5 (.773 W%) to
avoid finishing .500... The final team we're saying is just waiting for
the Fat Lady are the Carolina Mudcats (67-73;
22 games remaining). The Fish already have three more losses than they
had all of last year, when they were the top wildcard seed at 92-70.
The Mudcats are 6 games out of the final playoff spot, and have a
tragic number of 16 before they're eliminated. With their next loss (or
Philly's next win), they will be officially knocked out of the race for
the Morris Division title; Arkansas was eliminated last week, and of
course the Hanover race is already over.
But the Slappers have gone just 8-12 so far in
the fourth quarter, dropping them 5½ games behind Marietta for
the top wildcard seed. At the moment, they're just 1½ games
ahead of Hillsborough and Hoboken, who are tied for the final two
playoff berths. Those 1½ games mean a lot; the 4th place team
gets home-field advantage in the first round of the playoffs. But even
more importantly, D.C. is just 2 games
ahead of the 7th place Sharks and 2½ games ahead of 8th place
Vancouver, two teams with vastly more playoff experience. D.C.'s magic
number to clinch a playoff berth is still a lofty 19. Coincidentally,
they have 19 games remaining -- 6 at home and 13 on the road. That
could prove decisive, as the Slappers have a .547 winning percentage at
home but just .515 on the road. D.C.'s remaining Strength of Schedule
is somewhat deceptive; .496 doesn't look too tough, but 11 of those 19
games are against quality opponents. It includes six games against the
Sugar Bears, all in Newark, including the last four games of the
season; three games in Honolulu; and two, at home, against
Hillsborough. D.C. has a losing record against all three teams, going a
combined 9-17. But they also have a chance to be a bully as they have
three games against 13th place Sardine City, three against 12th place
New Jersey and two against 11th place South Boston. So far this season,
the Bushies have gone 21-8 against those three teams. 
The Hitmen have to be troubled by the fact they've
already played most of their home games; their remaining schedule has
just 4 games in Hillsborough, where they have a .597 W%, and 18 on the
road, where it's .429. Six of those road games are against the woeful
Rat Pack, including their final four games of the season -- but the
Rats are 4-2 against the Hitmen so far this season. The rest of the
schedule is tough: Four games in 6th-place Hoboken, three in 3rd-place
Marietta, two in 4th-place D.C., three at home against the plucky
9th-place Mudcats, one at home against the 7th-place Sharks, and three
in 2nd-place Philly before finally closing it out with that four-game
set in Vegas. Out of all those opponents, the Hitmen have been
impressive only against Hoboken (6-2) and Carolina (7-3), while they've
been beaten up by Marietta (3-6) and Philly (3-7). They've essentially
split the series against D.C. (6-5) and Honolulu (5-6). The Hitmen have
a tough road ahead of them as they look to give owner Brent Campbell his first playoff appearance since
1998. 
they're a .494 team on the road. In addition, the Cutters
have the weakest strength of schedule remaining, with their
opponents combining for a .452 winning percentage; they're tied for the
easiest "weighted" schedule at .454. The Cutters face just one team
with a significantly better record -- the 3rd-place Mighty Men -- and
they only face them once (and they've gone 7-5 against them so far this
year). However, they also have two games against 7th-place Honolulu, a
team they've gone 4-7 against, and four games against 5th-place
Hillsborough, who they've gone 2-6 against. They just have to avoid
getting hammered in those 7 games, as they simply have no excuse if
they can't beat up the other teams on the schedule: six games against
11th place South Boston, three against 10th place Arkansas, three
against 13th place Sardine City and three against 14th place Las Vegas.
The Cutters are a combined 24-11 against those four teams this year,
and remember, all those games are at home. Is it too much to expect the
Cutters to win 16 out of their last 22 games? If they can do that,
they'd be virtually assured of their first playoff appearance since
2002. 
In fact, the Sharks have the league's 4th-best road
record, but just the 9th-best home record. The Sharks remaining
schedule is three games against the 8th-place Iron Fist; three home
games against 4th-place D.C.; three at home against the 9th-place
Mudcats; 2 in New Jersey against the 12th-place Buddahs; two at home
against 1st-place Newark; one on the road against 5th-place
Hillsborough; two on the road against 6th-place Hoboken; and then they
end the season with another three-game set home against the Fisters.
But there is some good news: The Sharks have winning records against
Vancouver (5-1), D.C. (7-2), New Jersey (7-4), Hoboken (7-4) and
Hillsborough (6-5); only Newark (4-7) and Carolina (4-5). So, while
those teams combine for an impressive .531 winning percentage overall,
the Sharks have gone 40-28 (.588 W%) against them so far this year.
That also means the hold the tiebreaker should they land in a tie with
any of the other four contenders. After finishing dead last in 2006,
can the Sharks return to the post-season waters they occupied from 2003
to 2005? 
They also have a relatively easy schedule the rest of the
way -- second-easiest if you go by raw strength of schedule (.471), and
tied for easiest if you go by weighted schedule (.454). On the other
hand, they have the most road games remaining of any contending team,
with just 2 games at home and 20 away. That's particularly notable for
the Iron Fist as they're much better at home (.570 W%) than on the road
(.443 W%). In fact, their only remaining home games are against two
teams they should beat anyway, 13th place Sardine City and 9th place
Carolina. They face the 7th-place Sharks six more times this season,
all in Honolulu; and so far this year, the Sharks are 5-1 against the
Iron Fist. They also have three games at third-place Marietta and three
at second-place Philadelphia. But at least they should be able to take
care of business with three games against the 14th place Rat Pack,
three games (including the one home game) against 13th place Sardine
City and three games against 11th place South Boston. To have any
chance of moving past two of the teams ahead of them in the standings,
the Iron Fist will have to take all three of those series, and probably
sweep one if not two of them. Luckily for the Iron Fist, they've fared
relatively well against all these teams except Honolulu (1-5) and,
surprisingly, South Boston (3-7). They've battled to essentially a draw
against Marietta (4-5) and Philly (5-5), while posting winning records
against Las Vegas (7-2), Sardine City (6-3) and Carolina (7-5). The
final three games of the season between Vancouver and Honolulu, could
decide which team finishes 6th -- unless one has already been
eliminated or
clinched!