The first round of the draft is decided by lottery.
All other rounds will follow reverse order of standings, like
in the past. The rule, used since the 2004 season, is intended to give
less incentive for teams to
lose games in order to get a better draft pick.
Here are the results of this year's
lottery:
Lottery
Result
|
Team |
2008
Finish
|
1st Rnd
Pick
|
Later
Rounds
|
1 |
Matthew's Mighty Men of Marietta |
12th
|
#1
|
#3
|
2 |
Blue Ridge Bombers |
13th
|
#2
|
#2
|
3 |
Stamford Team Buddah |
14th
|
#3
|
#1
|
4 |
Carolina Mudcats |
11th
|
#4
|
#4
|
5 |
Arkansas Golden Falcons |
8th
|
#5
|
#7
|
6 |
Sardine City Straphangers |
10th
|
#6
|
#5
|
7 |
Hoboken Cutters |
9th
|
#7
|
#6
|
8 |
Tampa Bay Plunkers*
|
7th
|
#8
|
#8
|
*Under new ownership; name to be announced
|
For the just the second time in the
six-year
history of the Draft Lottery -- but for the second year in a row -- the
league's worst team didn't get top
overall pick. In a karmic coincidence, the team that had been in last
place almost all season long, only to get hot at the end of the year
and finish in 12th, lucked into the last overall pick. The league's
worst team fell all the way to the No. 3 spot, the worst draw in league
history by a last-place team. Just three of the eight lottery teams are
picking where they "should" be based on the standings.
It was a shocker as Matthew's
Mighty Men of Marietta jumped up two spots to claim the first
overall pick in the draft. The Mighty Men finished tied for 12th, but
"won" the tiebreaker and thus the weaker draft position. But that
didn't matter as the Mites -- with just a 12.5 percent chance of
winning the first pick -- beat the odds and are now on the clock for
the first pick of the 2009 draft.
As we noted earlier, it's just the second
time in league history -- but the second year in a row -- that someone
other than the last-place team won the first pick. Last year, the 11th
place Blue Ridge Bombers jumped up three
spots to claim the No. 1 pick; this year, the Bombers finished tied
with Marietta for 12th place, but came in 13th after losing the
tiebreaker. The Bombers drew the second position in the draft as
expected, but they have already traded that pick to the D.C. Bushslappers, putting the Landsman brothers
at the top of the 2009 draft... Picking third are Stamford
Team Buddah. They had a 50.2 percent chance of winning the first
overall pick; after Marietta won it, they had a 57.4 percent chance of
getting the No. 2 pick. That went to Blue Ridge. Of the 159 balls now
remaining in the lottery hopper, 128 of them belonged to Stamford; the
odds finally went in their favor as they won the No. 3 spot. Perhaps
it's the revenge of the Garden State as the
Buddhists announced a few weeks before the draft lottery that they
would leave New Jersey for Connecticut? The No. 3 position is a new
record for worst draft position by the league's last place team... For
the second year in a row, the Carolina
Mudcats got the pick that was expected. Last year they finished 5th
from the bottom and drew the #5 pick; now they've finished 4th from the
bottom and drew the #4 pick... Another big winner were the Arkansas
Golden Falcons, who moved up two spots to the #5 pick despite
finishing 8th last year.
The Sardine City
Straphangers have been in the draft lottery all three years of
their existence and all three years have gotten unlucky. Once again
they are drawing one spot lower than expected -- this year they are
picking 6th in the first round, despite finishing with the fifth-worst
record... The No. 7 pick falls to the Hoboken
Cutters, also one spot worse than expected after they finished with
sixth-worst record... That leaves the No. 8 pick, as expected, to the
soon-to-be-renamed Tampa Bay Plunkers, who had
the eighth-worst record. The Plunkers have been sold and are expected
to announce a new team name shortly; sources in the Commissioner's
Office say the franchise is likely to move to Amityville.
Despite a second straight upset for the No.
1 overall pick, finishing last is still the best bet when it comes to
delivering the "expected outcome." The last place team has picked first
four times in six years, or 67 percent of the time. That's actually a
lot better than expected considering the last place team "only" has
50.2 percent of the balls in the hopper. Next is a tie between the 13th
and 12th place teams, who have picked where they should in half of the
six lotteries. This is the very first year that the team with the
fourth-best record has actually won the No. 4 pick; in the previous
five drafts, they'd moved up twice and down three times. One trend that
has continued
for all six years: The team with the seventh-worst record has never won
the No. 7 pick! They've moved up four times and down
twice, including this year.
Draft Lottery History (six
years)
|
Team's
Finish
|
Balls in
Lottery
|
Expected
pick
|
Result as
Expected
|
Moved
Up
|
Moved
Down
|
Best
|
Worst
|
14th |
128 |
#1
|
4
|
N/A
|
2
|
#1
|
#3
|
13th
|
64 |
#2
|
3
|
0
|
3
|
#2
|
#6
|
12th
|
32 |
#3
|
3
|
2
|
1
|
#1
|
#3
|
11th
|
16 |
#4
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
#1
|
#6
|
10th
|
8 |
#5
|
2
|
1
|
3
|
#4
|
#8
|
9th
|
4 |
#6
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
#4
|
#7
|
8th
|
2 |
#7
|
0
|
4
|
2
|
#4
|
#8
|
7th
|
1 |
#8
|
2
|
4
|
N/A
|
#6
|
#8
|
2008: For the first time in league history, the
last-place team doesn't win the No. 1 pick. The newly-formed Blue Ridge
Bombers (replacing the South Boston Gang) win the first pick, despite
posting the fourth-best record. The next three teams -- the 14th place
Las Vegas Rat Pack, 13th place Sardine City Straphangers and 12th place
New Jersey Team Buddah -- each drop a spot to pick No. 2, No. 3 and No.
4, respectively. The Carolina Mudcats and Vancouver Iron Fist pick as
expected, No. 5 and No. 6. The Arkansas Golden Falcons and Hillsborough
Hired Hitmen swap the last two spots, with eighth-worst Arkansas
picking 7th and seventh-worst Hillsborough picking 8th.
2007: Every team but one -- last-place Honolulu --
plays musical chairs. The Sharks get the first overall pick, followed
by 12th-place D.C. and 13th-place Phoenix (now Sardine City) in a swap
of positions. Then the shocker as 8th-place Philly -- which missed the
post-season only by losing a one-game play-in -- jumped up all the way
to No. 4. The three-spot improvement is the biggest gain in draft
lottery history. Eleventh-place dropped one spot to No. 5, followed by
another big jump -- Hillsborough, the 7th place team, moves up two
spots to the No. 6 pick. Ninth-place Hoboken drops one spot to No. 7,
leaving the big loser as 10th-place South Boston, who finished with the
league's fifth-worst record but got the No. 8 pick.
2006: The
first
three picks go as expected, but then the next four teams shake things
up. The 9th-place Rat Pack and 8th-place Mudcats move up two spots
each, to #4 and #5 respectively. The teams that get screwed
are 11th-place South Boston, falling two spots to #6, and the
10th-place Bushslappers, dropping two spots to #7. The 7th-place
Cutters are then left with the #8 pick as expected.
2005: The results go
almost exactly according
to the percentages, with last-place Hillsborough, 13th-place Westwood
and 12th-place Phoenix getting the first three picks as expected;
10th-place Harrison then lucked up one spot into the #4 pick,
bumping 11th-place Hoboken one spot down to the #5 pick. Ninth-place
Philly got the next pick as expected, but then 7th-place
Columbia moved up one spot to the #7 pick, dropping 8th-place Vancouver
one spot to the #8 pick.
2004: The first
lottery had plenty of upsets.
The only exceptions are Tijuana, which
finished last and therefore had the most balls in the draft, and indeed
got
the first pick; 12th-place Columbia and 10th-place Hoboken also picked
in their expected spots. The biggest shocker was Harrison, despite the
second-worst record, falling four spots to #6.
Taking advantage of the Rats'
fall was 11th-place Phoenix, which jumped up two spots from #4 to #2;
and 9th-place Philly,
which moved up from #6 to #4. The only other change happened with
7th-place Vancouver and 8th-place Brooklyn, who switched the last two
spots.
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