2009 Draft Lottery

The first round of the draft is decided by lottery. All other rounds will follow reverse order of standings, like in the past. The rule, used since the 2004 season, is intended to give less incentive for teams to lose games in order to get a better draft pick.

Here are the results of this year's lottery:

Lottery
Result
Team 2008
Finish
1st Rnd
Pick
Later
Rounds
1 Matthew's Mighty Men of Marietta 12th
#1
#3
2 Blue Ridge Bombers 13th
#2
#2
3 Stamford Team Buddah 14th
#3
#1
4 Carolina Mudcats 11th
#4
#4
5 Arkansas Golden Falcons 8th
#5
#7
6 Sardine City Straphangers 10th
#6
#5
7 Hoboken Cutters 9th
#7
#6
8 Tampa Bay Plunkers*
7th
#8
#8
*Under new ownership; name to be announced

For the just the second time in the six-year history of the Draft Lottery -- but for the second year in a row -- the league's worst team didn't get top overall pick. In a karmic coincidence, the team that had been in last place almost all season long, only to get hot at the end of the year and finish in 12th, lucked into the last overall pick. The league's worst team fell all the way to the No. 3 spot, the worst draw in league history by a last-place team. Just three of the eight lottery teams are picking where they "should" be based on the standings.

It was a shocker as Matthew's Mighty Men of Marietta jumped up two spots to claim the first overall pick in the draft. The Mighty Men finished tied for 12th, but "won" the tiebreaker and thus the weaker draft position. But that didn't matter as the Mites -- with just a 12.5 percent chance of winning the first pick -- beat the odds and are now on the clock for the first pick of the 2009 draft.

As we noted earlier, it's just the second time in league history -- but the second year in a row -- that someone other than the last-place team won the first pick. Last year, the 11th place Blue Ridge Bombers jumped up three spots to claim the No. 1 pick; this year, the Bombers finished tied with Marietta for 12th place, but came in 13th after losing the tiebreaker. The Bombers drew the second position in the draft as expected, but they have already traded that pick to the D.C. Bushslappers, putting the Landsman brothers at the top of the 2009 draft... Picking third are Stamford Team Buddah. They had a 50.2 percent chance of winning the first overall pick; after Marietta won it, they had a 57.4 percent chance of getting the No. 2 pick. That went to Blue Ridge. Of the 159 balls now remaining in the lottery hopper, 128 of them belonged to Stamford; the odds finally went in their favor as they won the No. 3 spot. Perhaps it's the revenge of the Garden State as the Buddhists announced a few weeks before the draft lottery that they would leave New Jersey for Connecticut? The No. 3 position is a new record for worst draft position by the league's last place team... For the second year in a row, the Carolina Mudcats got the pick that was expected. Last year they finished 5th from the bottom and drew the #5 pick; now they've finished 4th from the bottom and drew the #4 pick... Another big winner were the Arkansas Golden Falcons, who moved up two spots to the #5 pick despite finishing 8th last year.

The Sardine City Straphangers have been in the draft lottery all three years of their existence and all three years have gotten unlucky. Once again they are drawing one spot lower than expected -- this year they are picking 6th in the first round, despite finishing with the fifth-worst record... The No. 7 pick falls to the Hoboken Cutters, also one spot worse than expected after they finished with sixth-worst record... That leaves the No. 8 pick, as expected, to the soon-to-be-renamed Tampa Bay Plunkers, who had the eighth-worst record. The Plunkers have been sold and are expected to announce a new team name shortly; sources in the Commissioner's Office say the franchise is likely to move to Amityville.

Despite a second straight upset for the No. 1 overall pick, finishing last is still the best bet when it comes to delivering the "expected outcome." The last place team has picked first four times in six years, or 67 percent of the time. That's actually a lot better than expected considering the last place team "only" has 50.2 percent of the balls in the hopper. Next is a tie between the 13th and 12th place teams, who have picked where they should in half of the six lotteries. This is the very first year that the team with the fourth-best record has actually won the No. 4 pick; in the previous five drafts, they'd moved up twice and down three times. One trend that has continued for all six years: The team with the seventh-worst record has never won the No. 7 pick! They've moved up four times and down twice, including this year.

Draft Lottery History (six years)
Team's
Finish
Balls in
Lottery
Expected
pick
Result as
Expected
Moved
Up
Moved
Down
Best
Worst
14th 128 #1
4
N/A
2
#1
#3
13th
64 #2
3
0
3
#2
#6
12th
32 #3
3
2
1
#1
#3
11th
16 #4
1
2
3
#1
#6
10th
8 #5
2
1
3
#4
#8
9th
4 #6
2
2
2
#4
#7
8th
2 #7
0
4
2
#4
#8
7th
1 #8
2
4
N/A
#6
#8


2008: For the first time in league history, the last-place team doesn't win the No. 1 pick. The newly-formed Blue Ridge Bombers (replacing the South Boston Gang) win the first pick, despite posting the fourth-best record. The next three teams -- the 14th place Las Vegas Rat Pack, 13th place Sardine City Straphangers and 12th place New Jersey Team Buddah -- each drop a spot to pick No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4, respectively. The Carolina Mudcats and Vancouver Iron Fist pick as expected, No. 5 and No. 6. The Arkansas Golden Falcons and Hillsborough Hired Hitmen swap the last two spots, with eighth-worst Arkansas picking 7th and seventh-worst Hillsborough picking 8th.

2007: Every team but one -- last-place Honolulu -- plays musical chairs. The Sharks get the first overall pick, followed by 12th-place D.C. and 13th-place Phoenix (now Sardine City) in a swap of positions. Then the shocker as 8th-place Philly -- which missed the post-season only by losing a one-game play-in -- jumped up all the way to No. 4. The three-spot improvement is the biggest gain in draft lottery history. Eleventh-place dropped one spot to No. 5, followed by another big jump -- Hillsborough, the 7th place team, moves up two spots to the No. 6 pick. Ninth-place Hoboken drops one spot to No. 7, leaving the big loser as 10th-place South Boston, who finished with the league's fifth-worst record but got the No. 8 pick.

2006: The first three picks go as expected, but then the next four teams shake things up. The 9th-place Rat Pack and 8th-place Mudcats move up two spots each, to #4 and #5 respectively. The teams that get screwed are 11th-place South Boston, falling two spots to #6, and the 10th-place Bushslappers, dropping two spots to #7. The 7th-place Cutters are then left with the #8 pick as expected.

2005: The results go almost exactly according to the percentages, with last-place Hillsborough, 13th-place Westwood and 12th-place Phoenix getting the first three picks as expected; 10th-place Harrison then lucked up one spot into the #4 pick, bumping 11th-place Hoboken one spot down to the #5 pick. Ninth-place Philly got the next pick as expected, but then 7th-place Columbia moved up one spot to the #7 pick, dropping 8th-place Vancouver one spot to the #8 pick.

2004: The first lottery had plenty of upsets. The only exceptions are Tijuana, which finished last and therefore had the most balls in the draft, and indeed got the first pick; 12th-place Columbia and 10th-place Hoboken also picked in their expected spots. The biggest shocker was Harrison, despite the second-worst record, falling four spots to #6. Taking advantage of the Rats' fall was 11th-place Phoenix, which jumped up two spots from #4 to #2; and 9th-place Philly, which moved up from #6 to #4. The only other change happened with 7th-place Vancouver and 8th-place Brooklyn, who switched the last two spots.