August 11, 2006  

With only about 20 games left in the 2006 season, it's time to start take a look at the Pat Listach Rookie of the Year Award candidates. Remember, a rookie is defined as a player in his first year of DMBL eligibility (for batters, that's 250 MLB plate appearances for non-catchers; 200 MLB plate appearances for catchers; 10 starts for starting pitchers; and 30 games, with at least 10 in relief, for relievers). This year, there are 114 rookies: 53 batters and 61 pitchers.

And the leading candidates are...

Batters

Phil Plantier's Top 5 Rookie Batters
(in alphabetical order)
Robinson Cano, HIL
2B
.316, .809 OPS, 40 2B, 13 HR, 96 R, 64 RBI, 85.3 RC
Ryan Howard, HIL
1B
.318, .693 SLG, 1.053 OPS, 41 HR, 71 R, 103 RBI, 9.3 RC/27
Dan Johnson, SB
1B
.307, .380 OBP, .903 OPS, 32 2B, 27 HR, 72 R, 87 RBI, 104.4 RC
Joe Mauer, LV
C
.303, .389 OBP, .876 OPS, 32 2B, 12 HR, 74 R, 12 SB, 7.4 RC/27
Grady Sizemore, CAR
OF
.324, .554 SLG, .926 OPS, 9 3B, 18 HR, 66 R, 60 RBI, 7.4 RC/27

Click here to see all the rookie batter stats

In 2004, Newark 2B Marcus Giles led the rookies in almost offensive category despite playing a demanding defensive position, making him the unanimous choice for the Listach. Last year, Vancouver C Victor Martinez duplicated the feat, leading the rookies in almost everything while manning the duties behind the plate, and he too was the unanimous choice. But this year, no batter stands head and shoulders above the crowd, making for some intrigue.

Hillsborough's Ryan Howard is sure to get some consideration. Drafted in the 12th round (#155) last year as an ineligible prospect, the 26-year-old first baseman has not disappointed, leading the DMBL -- not just rookies -- with 41 home runs! And, if he had enough plate appearances to qualify, he'd also lead the league in slugging percentage (.693), isolated power (.375) and AB/HR (9.2). He'd also rank in the top 10 among all batters -- Ryan Howardand lead all rookie batters -- in OPS (1.053) and RC/27 (9.3). But that's the knock against Howard -- he doesn't play enough. The lefty is in a strict platoon at first base, seeing just 13 at-bats this year against southpaws (and going hitless!) He has 406 plate appearances, 34 short of the required 3.1 plate appearances per team game played to qualify for the batting title. Unless Howard starts playing every day, or the Hitmen see a parade of right-handers in their last 20 games, he's unlikely to make it. Will the voters go for a player without enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title? And if so, how long will they go? Newark's Ryan Church (.331 BA, 15 HR, 43 RBI) also is a part-time player, but he faces only lefties, so he has just 202 plate appearances -- but he's got a higher slugging percentage (.711), OPS (1.159) and RC/27 (12.1) than Howard does! A similar case can be made for Carolina's Jeff Francouer (.320, 1.033 OPS, 9.0 RC/27 in 179 plate appearances). A more realistic comparison would be with Carolina's Grady Sizemore, who is 17 plate appearances shy of the batting title; if we overlook that, he'd lead them in batting average (.324) and tie for the rookie lead in RC/27 (7.4). He also has 18 HR, 66 R and 60 RBI, and leads all rookies with 9 triples. The voters likely will include "almosts" like Howard and Sizemore, but we'll see if it has an impact on the balloting.

The other candidates do qualify, however. Dan JohnsonIn fact, the rookie with the highest OPS actually leads all rookies in plate appearances (592), South Boston's Dan Johnson. No, not the guy from Miami Vice -- this is the 26-year-old first baseman taken in the 3rd round (#32 overall) of this year's draft. In addition to OPS (.903), D.J. also leads rookies in runs created (104.4), slugging percentage (.523), and walks (59), and is tied for the rookie lead in RC/27 (7.4). He's 2nd among rookies in batting average (.307), on-base percentage (.380), hits (160), runs batted in (87), is 3rd in home runs (27), is tied for 3rd in doubles (32), and is 4th in runs (72). Johnson also leads all rookie first baseman in fielding percentage, total chances per game and assists per game; among all first baseman, however, he ranks around the middle of the pack.

A long-term investment -- taken in the 5th round (#58 overall) two years ago -- is paying dividends for the Rat Pack. Catcher Joe Mauer leads all rookies in on-base percentage (.389) and is tied for the rookie lead in RC/27 (7.4). Surprisingly quick for a catcher, the 23-year-old also is tied for the rookie lead in stolen bases (12), and even more impressive, has been caught just once this year. Robinson CanoOverall, Mauer is hitting .303 (.876 OPS) with 32 doubles, 12 homers, 74 runs and 50 RBIs. He's also 2nd among all catchers in lowest stolen base percentage allowed (.533)... He might lose some votes to teammate Jhonny Peralta, a 24-year-old shortstop taken with the #2 pick of this year's draft. Peralta is hitting just .248 (.745 OPS), but he has plenty of pop, with 29 doubles, 24 home runs and 81 RBIs, and leads all rookies with 15 game-winning RBIs... Howard also has to worry about the enemy within as teammate Robinson Cano is one of his top competitors. The 23-year-old second baseman, taken by Hillsborough in the 2nd round (#17 overall) of this year's draft, leads all rookies in batting average (.316), hits (177) and runs (96). He's also 2nd in doubles (40), tied for 3rd in triples (4) and is 4th in runs created (85.3), OPS (.809), OBP (.338) and SLG (.471). He also leads rookie second baseman in fielding percentage (.981).

One interesting candidate is Jonny Gomes, whose career got off to a so-so start with Las Vegas (.246 BA, .763 OPS, 4.6 RC/27), but has been on fire since getting traded to Marietta (.316 BA, 1.148 OPS, 12.2 RC/27). Jonny GomesOverall, Gomes -- a 2nd round pick (#19 overall) traded for Gary Sheffield -- is hitting .262 (.852 OPS) with 32 HR, 81 R and 83 RBI. He leads all rookies in HBP (17), but also in strikeouts (184) and caught stealing (8). The 25-year-old outfielder is on the bubble in my personal "top 5" batting candidates, but if he stays this hot, he'll be bursting someone else's bubble... The only other rookies with enough plate appearances to qualify for the leaderboard are Marietta OF Victor Diaz (.254, .761 OPS, 23 2B, 18 HR, 53 R, 68 RBI); Philly 2B/3B Jorge Cantu (.230, .634 OPS, 2.9 RC/27, 41 2B, 14 HR, 66 RBI); South Boston 3B Garrett Atkins (.234, .635 OPS, 3.0 RC/27, 13 HR, 47 R, 63 RBI); and South Boston 2B Rickie Weeks (.255, .756 OPS, 16 HR, 57 R, 48 RBI, 8 SB).

Starting Pitchers

Phil Plantier's Top 5 Rookie Starters
(in alphabetical order)
Joe Blanton, LV
10-8, 28 GS, 5.21 ERA, 12.7 R/9, 81 K, 55 BB, 160.2 IP, .429 QS%
Zach Duke,
NWK-WWD
11-9, 28 GS, 4.54 ERA, 13.9 R/9, 132 K, 59 BB, 176.1 IP, .571 QS%
Felix Hernandez, HIL
14-11, 29 GS, 3.69 ERA, 12.2 R/9, 66 BB, 193 K, 195.1 IP, .621 QS%
Brandon McCarthy, VAN
9-8, 26 GS, 6.77 ERA, 15.3 R/9, 36 BB, 107 K, 134.1 IP, .385 QS%
Chien-Ming Wang, NWK
9-6, 24 GS, 5.13 ERA, 14.1 R/9, 45 BB, 58 K, 135.0 IP, .292 QS%

Click here to see all the rookie starter stats

The starting rotation is no place to break in a rookie pitcher -- there's just nine rookie starting pitchers on rosters, and of those, only six have been in the rotation all season long. (Two others have been used occasionally; one hasn't seen any time in the DMBL this season.) But while it may be difficult for a rookie to succeed in the rotation, those that do are frequently rewarded: Rookies have won the Pat Listach Rookie of the Year Award three times and the Ben McDonald Pitcher of the Year Award once. (In fact, Big Ben himself was a rookie when he had that great 1991 season!)

In fact, there is a rookie starter with a great shot at winning the Listach: Felix Hernandez, who also is the youngest player in the league this year. Born April 8, 1986 -- just five years before the league was founded -- Felix Hernandez"King Felix" was a teen-age Double-A pitcher when Hillsborough had the foresight to draft him as an ineligible prospect in the 4th round (#43 overall) of last year's draft. Hernandez not only has a bright future, but he also has a terrific present -- he leads all rookie starters in just about everything, including wins (14), ERA (3.69), R/9 (12.2), H/9 (8.9), slugging percentage allowed (.377), OPS allowed (.694), complete games (3), innings (195.3), strikeouts (193), K/9 (8.9), starts (29), quality starts (18) and quality start percentage (.621). He's tied for 1st in shutouts (1) and is 2nd in winning percentage (.560) and K:BB (2.9). Among all pitchers, Hernandez is 3rd in strikeouts and innings, tied for 3rd in K/9, 4th in SLG, tied for 4th in quality starts, 5th in QS% and OPS, tied for 6th in wins, 8th in ERA and complete games, tied for 8th in shutouts, and 9th in H/9. With Hernandez, Ryan Howard and Robinson Cano, the top three vote-getters might all be playing for Hillsborough!

Hernandez's numbers are all the more impressive when you consider what the other rookie starters are doing. In fact, just one other starter has an ERA under 5, a R/9 under 13, or a quality start percentage over .500, and just two other starters are in double-digits in the wins column. Zach DukeOf those four modest accomplishments, Zach Duke (11-9, 4.54 ERA, 13.9 R/9, .571 QS%) has three of them. Selected by Westwood with the first pick in this year's draft, Duke had a horrible first three months (4-7, 5.68 ERA), but would go 4-1 in his next nine starts, knocking a full run off his ERA, to become a commodity at the trading deadline. The Deductions shipped him to Newark for Orlando Cabrera and a 6th rounder, and with the Sugar Bears he's gone 3-1 with a 3.60 ERA (despite a 14.7 R/9). Duke's greatest strength is keeping the ball in the park -- he leads all pitchers, not just rookies, with a miniscule 0.6 HR/9. He's 2nd among rookies in wins, ERA, strikeouts (132), quality starts (16) and quality start percentage; tied for 2nd in starts (28), BB/9 (3.0) and complete games (1); 3rd in R/9 and K:BB (2.2) and 4th in W% (.550). He also has a shutout, tying him with two others for the rookie lead.

Duke's new teammate, Chien-Ming Wang, is having a moderately successful freshman campaign (9-6, 5.13 ERA, 14.1 R/9) despite missing a number of starts due to injury. The 26-year-old right-hander was selected by Newark with the last pick of the 1st round (#14 overall). He leads all rookies in winning percentage (.600) and is one of three rookies with a shutout. But the stat that makes Wang happiest is 7.4 -- that's how many runs the Sugar Bears have averaged for him per start... The only other rookie having what anyone would consider a solid season is Las Vegas's Joe Blanton (10-8, 5.21 ERA, 12.7 R/9). The 25-year-old right-hander, taken with the #4 pick in this year's draft, ranks 2nd among rookies in R/9 and 3rd in wins, W% (.556) and innings (160.2).

Just two other rookies are in double-digits when it comes to starts this year, and neither is having what could be considered a Listach-caliber season. Vancouver's Brandon McCarthy, a 22-year-old right-hander taken in the 2nd round (#26 overall), is 9-8 with a 6.77 ERA and 15.3 R/9. He leads all rookies in BB/9 (2.4) and K:BB ratio (3.0), but also has given up 31 HRs in 134.1 IP for a rookie-worst 2.1 HR/9. Meanwhile, Phoenix's Robinson Tejeda, a 24-year-old right-hander taken in the 11th round (#142 overall), is 2-12 with a 5.50 ERA and 15.1 R/9. But he's tied for 2nd among rookies in K/9 (7.2) and is 3rd in strikeouts (121) and quality start percentage (.444)... Scott KazmirThe only other rookie starters on rosters haven't seen much PT this season. Chris Young, a 27-year-old righty taken in the 3rd round (#33 overall) by D.C., was 0-5 with the Bushslappers before he was traded to Las Vegas, where he's had one start and one relief appearance. Overall, he's 1-6 with a 6.29 ERA, 14.8 R/9... It seems like we've been hearing about him for years, but actually Scott Kazmir is a rookie, and he's still just 22 years old. The southpaw was drafted by Hoboken in the 5th round (#64 overall) way back in 2004 -- that's three drafts ago! Since the Cutters have been so patient with him, it makes sense they're not rushing him this year either -- he's been given just six starts so far, and the results haven't been great (1-3, 7.99 ERA, 19.0 R/9). But he has struck out 19 men in 23.2 innings, a taste of what's to come... The last rookie on a roster is Brad Hennessey, who has yet to make his DMBL debut. The 26-year-old right-hander was signed as a minor league free agent in June by Philly and traded a month later to Westwood for Brandon Webb, the #2 pick of the 2004 draft.

Relief Pitchers

Phil Plantier's Top 5 Rookie Relievers
(in alphabetical order)
Bobby Jenks, HIL
5-5, 1 SV, 9 holds, 4.99 ERA, 13.3 R/9, 125 K in 97.1 IP
Brian Shackelford, NWK
4-1, 2 SV, 11 holds, 3.15 ERA, 11.1 R/9, .143 IR%
Huston Street, SB
3-7, 21 SV, 3.37 ERA, 11.8 R/9, 79 K in 74.2 IP
Brad Thompson, PHX
6-2, 5 SV, 9 holds, 3.46 ERA, 10.6 R/9, 125.0 IP
Derrick Turnbow, HON
3-5, 19 SV, 2.41 ERA, 8.1 R/9, .243 IR%, .950 SV%

Click here to see all the rookie reliever stats

Two of this year's top closers are rookies, and there also are a number of set-up men having great seasons. And remember: The only reliever to ever win the ROY was Arkansas's John Rocker in 1999, and he was pitching middle relief, proving that a quality season in any capacity can be recognized by the voters. This year, there are a dozen 14 rookie relievers on DMBL rosters, though two of them have appeared in only a handful of games.

The Sharks have three rookies in their bullpen, including one who is guaranteed to draw some attention from the voters. Derrick TurnbowDerrick Turnbow is having a terrific year, saving what few games Honolulu has been able to win this season. When they do have a lead in the 9th, Turnbow has been all but automatic, with 19 saves in 20 chances -- if he had enough save opportunities to qualify, he'd easily be the league leader in save percentage at .950. He leads all rookie relievers in ERA (2.41), R/9 (8.1), H/9 (5.5) and relief points (38); he's also 2nd saves, appearances (78) and K:BB (2.7), 3rd in lowest percentage of inherited runners who scored (.243 IR%) and tied for 3rd in HR/9 (0.7). The 28-year-old righty was taken in the first round (#11 overall) of this year's draft... The only other rookie closer is South Boston's Huston Street, taken five spots earlier than Turnbow (#6 overall). The 22-year-old righty is the rookie save leader with 21, though he does have 6 blown saves (.778 SV%). Street is among rookies in 2nd in relief points (35), 3rd in ERA (3.37), and 4th in R/9 (11.8) and IR% (.273).

Those who can look past the glory of closers will find a number of pitchers have excellent debut seasons in the relative anonymity of middle relief. One of those unsung heroes is Newark southpaw Brian Shackelford, who leads all rookie relievers in fewest inherited runners allowed to score (.143), winning percentage (.800) and HR/9 (0.5); is 2nd in holds (11), ERA (3.15) and H/9 (6.9); and 3rd in BB/9 (2.3) and R/9 (11.1). Brian ShackelfordThe 29-year-old was taken in the 4th round (#56 overall) of this year's draft... The sturdiest rookie in the bullpen this year has been Phoenix's Brad Thompson, who is far and away the rookie leader in relief innings (125.0). No one else is in triple-digits! The 24-year-old 5th round pick (#58 overall) also leads all rookie relievers in wins (6) and BB/9 (1.7), is 2nd in R/9 (10.6), relief points (19) and SV% (.833), tied for 3rd in saves (5), and is 4th in ERA (3.46)... Name recognition and strikeouts are pretty much the only reason to vote for Bobby Jenks (5-5, 1 SV, 7 BSV, 4.99 ERA, 13.3 R/9). The big-boned 25-year-old, taken in the 3rd round (#41 overall) by Hillsborough, leads all rookie relievers in strikeouts (125), K/9 (11.6) and K:BB (3.2), but also has allowed 20 out of 49 inherited runners to score for a second-worst .408 IR%.

The rest of the field: South Boston's Kameron Loe is the only other reliever with at least 50 innings to post an ERA under 4 (3.96), and he's 2nd in HR/9 (0.6). But he's also walked 37 batters while striking out just 28... His teammate, Wil Ohman, leads the freshman class in appearances (81) and holds (16), but has little else going for him (5.00 ERA, 16.9 R/9, .338 IR%)... Arkansas's Fernando Rodney ranks 2nd in IR% (.176) and 5th in R/9 (12.6), but his 4.47 ERA and 6 blown saves in 10 opportunities are worrisome... Honolulu's Gary Majewski is solidly mediocre (3-5, 4.90 ERA, 14.8 R/9, .311 IR%)... There's little good to be said about D.C.'s Randy Flores (5-3, 1 SV, 6.62 ERA, 16.8 R/9, .412 IR%) or Marietta's Chris Ray (2-2, 1 SV, 7.06 ERA, 16.6 R/9, .333 IR%).

David CortesHaving good seasons in limited duty: Vancouver's David Cortes (1-0, 1 SV, 1 hold, 1.50 ERA, 9.0 R/9 in 12.0 IP) and Westwood's Jesse Crain (2-1, 1 SV, 3.62 ERA, 14.7 R/9 in 37.1 IP). Having a bad season in limited duty: Honolulu's Jeff Francis, who has appeared in just one game this season (1.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HR).

Phil Plantier, one of the top prospects of the last decade, was picked by baseball guru Bill James in 1991 as the player most likely to lead the majors in HRs during the 1990s. In 1994, at age 24, he hit 47 round-trippers with 118 RBIs for the Charleston Chiefs, his first and last DMBL season. He's currently an analyst for Fox Sports Net. Click Here for past articles.