Sept. 23, 2008  

Who are the top candidates for the Pat Listach Rookie of the Year Award? Unlike last year, when Marietta's Francisco Liriano was so dominant that it became a race for second place, this year has no clear-cut favorite... but several well-deserving candidates.

This year is the second-biggest rookie class since we started Rookie Watch way back in 2002! There were 123 rookies this year, ranking just ahead of the 120 there were in 2004. The record is held by the 2007 season, when there were a whopping 148 rookies.

This year's 123-member rookie class is comprised of 46 batters, 38 starting pitchers, 36 relief pitchers and three swing men.

The Batters

There were several very good hitters in this year's rookie class, but the most extreme was Newark's Jack Cust. First drafted as an ineligible player way back in 2000, Cust finally made his DMBL debut this season with the Sugar Bears, who selected him in the first round (#14 overall). There was probably no better fit for Cust than with the Sugar Bears, a team that eschews old-fashioned concepts like bunting, stealing and playing defense. They prefer their players to produce one of the Three True Outcomes (HR, BB, K) and Cust is the ultimate Three True Outcome player (48 HR, 134 BB, 269 K). But it would be wrong to dismiss him as an all-or-nothing slugger -- he led all rookies in BA (.326), OBP (.446), SLG (.629), OPS (1.075), RC (182.9), RC/27 (11.3), Total Bases (393), Total Average (1.216), HRs (48), AB/HR (13.0), Secondary Average (.518), R (163), RBIs (128), BB (134) and Ks (269), and tied for the rookie lead in hits (204). He led all players, not just rookies, in runs scored and strikeouts -- in fact, he set the Modern Era record for strikeouts. Cust won the rookie BA race by 15 points, OBP by 64 points, SLG by 24 points and OPS by 111 points.

No Lust for Cust... but you want to vote for a power hitter anyway? Maybe you'd prefer Marietta problem child Josh Hamilton. Taken in the 15th round (#208 overall) as an ineligible prospect in 2007, Hamilton got on the straight and narrow path and finished second (behind Cust) in almost every power category -- .605 SLG, .964 OPS, 36 HR (tied for 2nd) and 111 RBI. He also was tied for second (not behind Cust) in triples among rookies, with 10, and he had a 17-game hitting streak... Another rookie longball threat was Sardine City's Ryan Braun. Taken in the 5th round (#58 overall) in 2007 as an ineligible prospect, the third baseman had a tremendous year at the plate (.263, .837 OPS, 36 HR, 99 R, 93 RBI), but was so atrocious in the field -- he made 48 errors, more than twice as many as anyone else, for a league-worst .885 fielding percentage -- that he'll spend the winter preparing for a switch to outfield next year. Sluggers probably not on the voters' radar: Carolina 1B Ryan Garko (.264, .769 OPS, 20 HR, 86 RBI, 25 HBP) and New Jersey 3B Josh Fields (.226, .752 OPS, 29 HR, 78 RBI).

He Goes Both Ways: If you want a player who shined with the bat and the glove, start at the top of the class with Carolina's Dustin Pedroia. The dimunitive second baseman hit .308, fourth-best among qualifying rookies; he led all rookies in doubles (61) and tied Cust for the rookie lead in hits with 204. He also ranked second among rookies in Runs Created (114.1), was third in RBIs (100) and tied for fifth in OPS (.833). He's also a pretty nifty defensive second baseman, ranking first in double plays (143) and assists per game (3.29), second in total chances per game (5.30), and sixth in fielding percentage (.984)  Pedroia was the first overall pick in this year's draft; the Mudcats gave up the #5 and #12 picks to move up and get him. There's been much consternation in the front offices of both Blue Ridge (who gave up the first pick) and Marietta (who drafted him as an ineligible prospect last year, but cut him to hang onto the immortal Kei Igawa). We're not sure if those owners love Pedroia so much that they want him to have the ROY -- or if that would just be rubbing salt into their own wounds... Other rookies who produced from demanding defensive positions: Newark C Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.311, .826 OPS, 22 2B, 19 HR, 96 RBI); Newark 2B Mike Fontenot (.309, .761 OPS, 22 2B, 77 R, 61 RBI); and Tampa Bay 3B Akinori Iwamura (.247, .700 OPS, 30 2B, 10 3B, 63 R, 75 RBI).

The Need for Speed: One of the most electrifying players in this year's freshman class was Sardine City's B.J. Upton, who led rookies with 20 SBs (but also was caught 8 times, for a so-so .714 SB%). Upton, a 23-year-old outfielder, is the prototypical "five tool player" that scouts drool over. He showed signs of his incredible promise, hitting .301 (.833 OPS) with 27 2B, 27 HR, 105 R and 70 RBI, including a 17-game hitting streak that tied Hamilton for the longest among rookies. But he also struck out 224 times, second among rookies. Upton has to be something special to repay all that has already been invested in him. He was selected in the fourth round (#47 overall) by the Harrison Rats as an ineligible prospect way back in 2005; when the Rats moved to Las Vegas, they took Upton with them, protecting him as an ineligible player in 2006. In 2007, Upton -- still ineligible -- was traded to Sardine City for a 12th round pick and protected again. In 2008, he was protected again but finally made his debut. An infielder in the minors, Upton was exclusively an outfielder this year and apparently will remain there next year as well after playing nearly flawless defense (.995 fielding percentage)... Other rookie speed demons: D.C. OF Matt Kemp (.289, .747 OPS, 18 HR, 12 SB); Sardine City SS Ryan Theriot (.222, .544 OPS, 18 2B, 12 SB, 0 CS); Tampa Bay OF Reggie Willits (.265, .726 OPS, 22 2B, 10 SB).

What the Buck: Still haven't made up your mind? Maybe you'd prefer a solid all-around player. Hoboken OF Travis Buck wasn't flashy but he ranked in the top five among rookies in most categories, hitting .284 with a .382 OBP and .485 SLG (.867 OPS, 103.5 RC); he had 31 2B, 9 3B and 20 HR for 90 R and 72 RBI. The 23-year-old also was one of this year's top defensive outfielders, ranking 1st among all DMBL right fielders in total chances per game (2.31) while posting a perfect 1.000 fielding percentage; he also tied for fifth among right fielders with 7 assists.  Buck, fittingly enough, provided good value as the No. 24 pick in this year's draft... Other rookies who quietly had good seasons were Tampa Bay 1B James Loney (.277, .789 OPS, 23 2B, 27 HR, 111 R, 83 RBI), who led all rookies with 11 3B; and Marietta 1B Casey Kotchman (.274, .794 OPS, 41 2B, 14 HR, 85 RBI).

The Starters

Usually, just surviving your rookie season is an accomplishment for a DMBL starting pitcher. But that doesn't mean starters don't have a shot at winning the Listach -- in fact, in the 10-year history of the award, four rookie starters have won it, including Francisco Liriano last year.

This year, there's really only one rookie starter with a real shot at winning the award -- Hoboken's Jeremy Guthrie. The 28-year-old right-hander led all rookie starters in wins (15), ERA (3.96), R/9 (12.0), BB/9 (2.4), quality starts (17) and innings (220.1); among all starters in the DMBL, he was 5th in ERA, 3rd in innings, tied for 7th in R/9 and tied for 9th in wins. He also tied for the rookie lead in winning percentage, which is particularly impressive when you consider Hoboken won just 72 games this year -- his .625 W% was 181 points better than his team's. Hoboken has waited a long time for Guthrie to develop -- they first drafted him way back in 2004 (with the 61st overall pick!) as a 23-year-old ineligible prospect, but didn't protect him. They got him back this year in the 3rd Round (#38 overall).

Bring the Heat: If you want to vote for a rookie starter but aren't impressed with Guthrie's 5.6 K/9, there are a couple of fireballing options. Daisuke Matsuzaka may be a veteran in Japan, but the 27-year-old righty is a DMBL rookie. The Straphanger led all first-year hurlers in Ks (190), complete games (4) and H/9 (8.3), and was second in R/9 (12.7) and third in QS% (.469). But his 8-19 record and 5.22 ERA will likely give some voters pause.... Las Vegas rookie Tim Lincecum led all rookie starters with a sensational 9.7 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched (136 K in 126.2 IP). Overall, he was 10-6 (tying Guthrie with a .625 W%), though less impressive are his 5.83 ERA, 14.1 R/9 and .417 QS%. However, even if you overlook those numbers, there's one more reason not to vote for him -- he lost his job! And not once but twice. Lincecum started the year in the rotation, but was demoted to the minors after the trade for Josh Beckett. He appeared to win back the job after Erik Bedard went down with an injury in early August, but after just one start he was demoted again, this time in favor of fellow rookie Jason Hirsh. That experiment ended with Hirsh's release after just three starts, but Lincecum only got one more game before Bedard's return... Philly's Yovani Gallardo fanned nearly a batter an inning (113 K in 115.1 IP) and allowed just 13 HRs. His 1.0 HR/9 and 2.6 K:BB were the best of any rookie with at least 20 starts, and his 11 wins tied for second most among rookie starters. But his 5.76 ERA, 13.6 R/9 and .350 QS% show he still has lots of room for improvement.

Have Arm, Will Travel: Sometimes it's easy to overlook the contributions of rookie starters. It's even easier when they split their seasons between two teams. Dustin McGowan, the first starter selected in this year's draft -- No. 5 overall -- went 7-7 with a solid 4.37 ERA and 13.2 R/9 in 20 starts with Blue Ridge, then was traded to Sardine City, where he went 1-1 with an even more impressive 2.35 ERA and 9.8 R/9 in three starts and two relief appearances. (Some of the improvement may be attributed to the change in home ballparks -- The Cannery in Sardine City is the pitcher-friendliest park in the DMBL.) Overall, McGowan was 8-8 (and 1 save) with the second-best ERA (4.05), R/9 (12.6), H/9 (8.5), and HR/9 (1.1), and he led all rookies with a .565 QS%... Other rookies who have already worn more than one uniform: Carolina/Newark's Brian Bannister (8-6, 5.47 ERA, 13.9 R/9, .417 QS% in 24 starts) and Vancouver/Philly's Kyle Kendrick (3-5, 4.63 ERA, 13.8 R/9, .455 QS% in 11 starts).

The Youngest Guns: Nine rookies under the age of 25 made at least one start this season. They may not be old enough to rent a car, but they can pitch in the DMBL! The best of the bunch was highly touted Sardine City rookie Phil Hughes. Taken last year with the 16th pick overall as a 21-year-old ineligible prospect, Hughes turned in a solid performance for the Straphangers (7-11, 4.40 ERA, 14.0 R/9, .385 QS%), with 130 K in 151.1 IP. Other young hurlers of note include Hoboken's 24-year-old Matt Garza (10-15, 5.38 ERA, 15.1 R/9, .387 QS%); New Jersey's 23-year-old Jesse Litsch (6-15, 5.45 ERA, 14.4 R/9, .313 QS%); and Sardine City's 24-year-old Ubaldo Jimenez (6-14, 5.16 ERA, 14.1 R/9, .419 QS%).

Don't Forget About... D.C.'s Shawn Hill quietly turned in an impressive rookie campaign for the wildcard-winning Bushslappers. Hill tied for 2nd among rookie starters with 11 wins and was 4th in ERA (5.12), R/9 (13.3), W% (.550) and QS% (.448), and was the only rookie to throw two shutouts this year. (Guthrie had the only other shutout thrown by a rookie in '08.) The second-round pick (#23 overall) also had 114 K in 165.1 IP... You can also keep an eye on Philly's Jason Bergmann (7-7, 5.38 ERA, 14.0 R/9, .429 QS% in 21 starts) and Marietta's Micah Owings (6-9, 5.56 ERA, 14.9 R/9, .393 QS% in 28 starts) and John Danks (4-11, 8.37 ERA, 17.8 R/9, .074 QS% in 27 starts).

The Relievers

In the 10-year history of the ROY Award, it's been one by a reliever just once -- setup man John Rocker, who split his rookie season in 1999 between Hawaii and Arkansas. Could it happen again? It will be a long time before another player comes along as beloved as Rocker, but some of this year's rookie relievers made a good case for themselves at least when it comes to their on-the-field performance.

The people's choice in the Listach race among relievers has to be Tampa Bay's Lee Gardner. The only true closer among the freshman class, Gardner finished fourth in the Dennis Eckersley Rolaids Reliever of the Year Award standings, 10 points behind winner Jonathan Papelbon; he also tied for second in the DMBL with 28 saves. Among rookies, he of course led the pack in saves and relief points, but also in ERA (1.82). Gardner's other numbers -- 12.6 R/9, .295 IR%, 2.5 K:BB -- are solid but not as impressive. The 33-year-old right-hander was one of the biggest values among ROY candidates in this year's draft, as he was selected by the Plunkers in the 7th Round (#95).

It's A Set Up: Assuming the voters can look past all those saves and the nifty ERA, maybe some of the set-up men will be considered. By far the most outstanding candidate of the 8th inning guys was Vancouver's Hideki Okajima. The 20th pick in this year's draft, Okajima led the league -- not just rookies, but everybody -- with 20 holds. Even more impressive was his league-leading, microscopic .081 inherited runners scored percentage. The 32-year-old left-hander entered games with 37 runners on the bases, and just 3 of them scored. He also led rookie relievers in R/9 (9.0) and H/9 (7.2), tied for the rookie lead in relief wins (7), and was second in K:BB (74 K, 17 BB in 98.2 IP). If there's a knock on Okajima, it's that he gives up too many long balls -- 13 in 69 games, or 1.2 HR/9 IP... Marietta's Brandon Morrow was a machine for the pitching-strapped Mighty Men. The 23-year-old was the only rookie this year to set an all-time league record -- he appeared in an astonishing 131 games. (The previous record was 122, set in 2000.) Morrow still had his crackling fastball at the end of the year, however, racking up 120 Ks in 115.2 IP. He also had 18 holds, which tied for 2nd in the DMBL... Tying Okajima for the relief wins title this year was Newark's Jared Burton. The 27-year-old right-hander, taken in the 5th round (#70 overall), posted an impressive 2.71 ERA and had 14 holds to go along with his 7 wins and 3 saves, but he has major control issues (50 BB, 8 HBP, 10 WP in 83.0 IP).

Get 'Er Done: Every bullpen needs their version of duct tape -- the guy who is the solution to seemingly every problem, from mop-up duty to emergency closer. This year's top bullpen utility man was Arkansas's Joakim Soria, who did everything the team asked of him short of picking up the dry cleaning. Soria, the 7th pick overall in this year's draft, had 9 saves and 9 holds, a testimony to how varied his usage was this year. His 6.6 K:BB ratio (18 BB, 118 K in 110.0 IP) easily led rookie relievers; his 10.1 R/9, 3.27 ERA and .264 IR% were solid also... New Jersey's Tony Pena played a similar role in the Buddah 'pen, picking up 6 wins, 13 holds and 3 saves in 108 innings of work (.268 IR%), and he led all rookie relievers in H/9 (8.1)... Other do-it-all relievers were Hillsborough's Justin Hampson (3-3, 2 SV, 2.84 ERA, 12.3 R/9, .308 IR%) and Tampa Bay's Kevin Cameron (4-3, 0 SV, 3.39 ERA, 13.5 R/9, .276 IR%).

Happy Trails: Rafael Perez was this year's most well-traveled rookie. Selected #19 overall by Philly, the 26-year-old lefty must have been allergic to cheesesteaks -- he posted a miserable 5.55 ERA in 36 appearances before finally being traded to Hoboken. He liked that city a little better, recording a 3.64 ERA in 17 games. Then he was traded again, this time to Las Vegas, where he's really having a good time (2.82 ERA in 14 games). It all works out to a 4.49 ERA, 11.7 R/9 and .289 IR% in 67 games. He also has 2 wins, 8 saves and 11 holds, with 104 K in 110.1 IP. He may not win Rookie of the Year, but at least he picked up a nice variety of team memorabilia... Bobby Seay's numbers went in the opposite direction after he was traded. The 30-year-old southpaw was selected in the 8th round (#103) by Carolina, where he went 0-2 with 6 saves (3.78 ERA, 13.5 R/9) in 14 appearances. He was then traded to Philly, where he crashed and burned (9.53 ERA, 20.6 R/9). He was released after 7 games.

Phil Plantier, one of the top prospects of the last decade, was picked by baseball guru Bill James in 1991 as the player most likely to lead the majors in HRs during the 1990s. In 1994, at age 24, he hit 47 round-trippers with 118 RBIs for the Charleston Chiefs, his first and last DMBL season. He's currently an analyst for Fox Sports Net. Click Here for past articles.